As the Packers’ draft analyst for DraftTek.com, I’ve been involved with over 25 mock drafts since the 2014 season ended. They’re not entirely mine, however, as the actual picks are made by a computer simulation. I get to input needs information, and can put in requests to “grab” certain players (if they are available at that spot) or “lockout” players from contention.
Analysts for the other 31 teams all do the same thing. What results is the closest thing to a real draft simulation (they don’t call it a mock) I’ve seen anywhere. It ‘s quite unique and if you are not familiar with it, you really should check them out.
What’s even cooler is that on draft day, the “simulation” is updated within minutes of when each pick is selected. So, when the Packers are up at #30, it will re-run the simulation, eliminating the 29 other players already picked from contention for the Packers’ pick. So at any point in the draft, you can get a quick view at what the landscape looks like for the rest of the draft. Isn’t that rather amazing? It’s a great thing to be checking as you watch the draft unfold…
Anyway, here’s what I’ve come up with for an “all-mine” mock draft, taking into account needs, value and trying to predict who might be available at each pick:
My One and Only 2015 Packers Mock Draft
1) Jalen Collins, CB, LSU – I’ve been told for a month that Kevin Johnson and Jalen Collins are at the top of the Packers CB wish list. While I don’t expect Johnson to make it to pick 30, the reports of Collins failing some drug tests at LSU probably means Collins will. Normally I would rule out a guy with some off-field issues as a Packers top pick, but the recent welcoming back of Letroy Guion to Green Bay tells me their stance on non-violent infractions may be softening. Collins marks off all the check boxes for the cornerback position, except perhaps experience. (Alternate Choices: Marcus Peters, Byron Jones – yes, I’m going all-in for a cornerback here.)
2) Paul Dawson, ILB, TCU – With Stephone Anthony presumably off the board, the choice here is Paul Dawson. Dawson is a bit of a rarity, an instinctual, hard-hitting middle linebacker type that is also very good in coverage. He needs to get stronger at the point of attack, but is adept at avoiding blockers and pursues sideline to sideline. He had a super productive final season with 128 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, five sacks and four interceptions. (Alternate Choices: Denzel Perryman, Shaq Thompson)
3) Marcus Hardison, DT, Arizona State – With Mike Daniels needing a new contract, Raji and Guion on 1 year deals and Khyrie Thornton a huge unknown, Ted has a hard time passing up another big body in this spot. Hardison is a guy that came on strong last season. Originally a DE, he was moved inside to DT and was highly effective as an inside pass rusher. Quick first step, athletic, but not stout against the run – needs some work there. Hardison is a guy who may just now be coming into his own and shows a high upside. (Alternate Choices: Xavier Cooper, Gabe Wright)
4) Davis Tull, OLB, Tennessee – Chattanooga – Tull was one of the winners of my “Best in Shorts” awards at the combine. He wowed scouts with the best vertical jump and broad jump despite battling a pulled hamstring. He couldn’t run the 40, but recorded a 4.57 at his Pro Day. Tull was a three-time Southern Conference Defensive Player of the year and started 48 straight games. He stood out against lesser competition foe his non-stop motor and aggressive play. Look up “Football Player” in the dictionary and his picture is there. (Alternate Choices: Alani Fua, Jake Ryan)
5) Kenny Bell, WR, Nebraska – Bell is not getting nearly as much love as he deserves, perhaps because he’s not a big, impressive-looking receiver and played for Nebraska, who ran the ball 62% of the time last year. Bell has a burst that will beat most cornerbacks, competes for the ball and is a deadly downfield blocker, a trait the Packers value highly. He’s also a kickoff returner that averaged roughly 25 yds per return. (Alternate Choices: Darren Waller, Josh Harper)
6) Wes Saxton, TE, South Alabama – This is purely a pick for the future. A raw, athletic player with limited experience, but one with a high upside if he takes to coaching, something Brandon Bostick did not do. Was a top combine performer among tight ends in the 40yd dash, vertical jump and broad jump. (Alternate Choices: Nick Boyle, EJ Bibbs)
6b) Akeem Hunt, RB Purdue – Hunt is a triple-threat guy (running, receiving, returning) who has drawn some comparisons to Darren Sproles. He has a long way to go to get to that level, but there is potential there. He was not invited to combine but had an excellent Pro Day performance, including a 4.37 40yd dash. (Alternate Choices: Karlos Williams, Terrance McGee)
6c) Tyrus Thompson, OT, Oklahoma – Thompson has a very good combination of size and athleticism and is a well-rounded prospect, but he is maddeningly inconsistent in both technique and effort. If he takes to NFL coaching, and plays like he means it, he would make a very capable backup with starter potential. Has played both tackle spots. (Alternate Choices: Darryl Baldwin, Chaz Green)
7) Cody Fajardo, QB, Nevada – Fajardo is my sleeper QB in this draft, as BJ Coleman was in the 2012 draft. The Packers took Coleman in the seventh round, so I’m looking for a repeat of that move, but hopefully with better results (Coleman was out of football last year). (Alternate Choices: Connor Halliday, Blake Sims)
Note: Coming up tomorrow will be my annual. “Last Minute Prediction, Opinions & Whispers.”
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Jersey Al Bracco is the founder and editor of AllGreenBayPackers.com, and the co-founder of Packers Talk Radio Network. He can be heard as one of the Co-Hosts on Cheesehead Radio and is the Green Bay Packers Draft Analyst for Drafttek.com.
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Nice mock.
I consider the Guion/Collins comparison…apples and oranges. A one year contract on a player who will share the position vs a 4-5yr commitment on a pick you need to contribute this year and the years following. I worry 188lb CB Jones is damaged goods w/ a bum shoulder.
I was hoping TT could trade down and take ILB Anthony mid 2nd round but there are teams picking early 30’s who need ILB’s/MLB’s so I want TT to take Anthony at 30. Though Dawson isn’t a bad alternative. Good CB’s will still be available in rounds 2-4.
Instead of the last 5 picks being on offense would rather see an additiional CB or LB added to the mix.
Could TT want Saxton to compete w/ Kuhn and be more of a FB/H-Back than a TE?
What are your thoughts re Mark Weisman? He reminds me of Kuhn; a productive RB in college who transitions to FB in the pros, good ST’er.
I doubt we really draft any offensive players other than at TE and maybe OL. QB and WR would prob just be a waste, but I like your idea of a late round pick on a FB BubbaOne. Maybe take a good 3rd down back at the end of the draft too. This is prob Kuhn’s last year, get someone to learn behind him for a year and keep 2 FB’s on the roster. Can’t hurt our ST!
I can’t act like I know which players are going to play well and who is a bust, but I think the best case scenario would be for TT to hit on a CB in the first round and ILB round 2. My logic has nothing to do with the actual players, just that CB’s are valued higher, so it would likely have to be a higher pick to get a good player there. If those 2 positions are solidified, rest of the NFL better watch out!
Thanks, Jersey Al, for making this your “one and only” Packers mock draft. I really appreciate it.
Nice haul for the most part, assuming that Dawson actually lasts until #62. IDK if he will. I’m okay with Jalen Collins, but not thrilled. I did have him with a 1st round grade, but the weed: can you spell Josh Gordon? If the failed drug test were in his freshman or sophomore years, and not in his last year, I’d fell better about him. When you go all-in on one position rather than BPA, you get Colledge and Spitz. No reason to make that mistake again. Bell is a bit too early. Not at all sure that he is better than what we have other than at KR. Couple of low effort guys, but at least they come later in the draft.
Not sure how I feel about Collins. Besides the marijuana use, there’s a lack of physicality that he plays with that worries me. Reminds me a bit of Justin Gilbert last year.
Other than that, I love the mock. Dawson and Hardison would be steals at those spots. The rest of the prospects seem like good fits and could develop.
Run it!
Not a Dawson fan and would rather see Byron Jones than Collins. Intrigued by the Saxon kid at TE. For whatever reason, I am a little underwhelmed by this years draft class. I usually get more hopped up about the later rounds and this year I am just not feeling it. This draft would be fine, but as usual, we need our 2nd and 3rd year players to make the big jump. GoPack! ps. is anyone else jazzed about Bucks/Bulls tonight? Not a big NBA fan but really enjoying this young Bucks squad.
IMO Jones has good upside, maybe not as high as some others, with none of the character flags that many of the top CBs have.