As the Packers’ draft analyst for DraftTek.com, I’ve been involved with more than 20 mock drafts since the 2013 season ended. They’re not entirely mine, however, as the actual picks are made by computer. I get to input needs information, and can try to “grab” certain players (if they are available at that spot) or “lockout” players from contention.
Analysts for the other 31 teams all do the same thing. What results is the closest thing to a real draft simulation (they don’t call it a mock) I’ve seen anywhere. It ‘s quite unique and if you are not familiar with it, you really should check them out.
What’s even cooler is that on draft day, the “simulation” is updated within minutes of when each pick is selected. So, when the Packers are up at #21, it will re-run the simulation within minutes, eliminating the 25 other players already picked from contention for the Packers’ pick. So at any point in the draft, you can get a quick view at what the landscape looks like for the rest of the draft. Isn’t that rather amazing? It’s a great thing to be checking as you watch the draft unfold…
Here’s how today’s today’s final DrafTek NFL Draft simulation ended up:
1 Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
2. Deone Bucannon, SS Washington St.
3. Dion Bailey, FS, USC
3b) Andrew Jackson, ILB, Western Kentucky
4) Taylor Hart, DE Oregon
5) Corey Linsley, C Ohio State
5b) Daniel McCullers, DT Tennessee
6) Jake Murphy, TE, Utah
7) Matt Hazel, WR, Coastal Carolina
Picks 1,2,4 and 7 were mine. I highly doubt Bucannon lasts past the early second and last few days have been full of speculation on Shazier being taken before the Packers pick. In all, this has been one of the toughest drafts for me to get a handle on. The #1 pick is still unknown and never have the QBs been such a complete question mark. How they come off the board will have a lot to say what the first two rounds end up looking like.
Here’s what I’ve come up with for an “all-mine” mock draft, taking into account needs, value and trying to predict who might be available at each pick:
My One and Only 2014 Packers Mock Draft
1) Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State – Shazier has been by pick here for the last few months, starting with my work for the CHTV Draft Guide. Two years straight I correctly predicted the Packers’ first pick in that guide, but changed my mind at the last minute for my Mock Draft here. I’m not going to do that again, even though over the last few days there has been rampant speculation that Shazier won’t make it to the Packers. I happen to be one of the few who like Shazier as an OLB for Green Bay. This would allow Dom Capers to return to some of his early-career 3-4 principles he had much success with. Alternate Choices: SS Deone Bucannon (yeah, I’d actually go this high on him, but perhaps a small trade back – not too much, NE has their eyes on him), LB C.J. Mosely.
2) Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss – For months, Deone Bucannon has been my choice here, but with so many teams looking for safeties, he will get overdrafted and possibly even make the late first round. Moncrief is my favorite of the “big” receivers in this draft. 4.4 speed with a 39″ vertical, large catching radius and fluid route running. Aced my eyeball tests in the combine receiver drills. Only 21 years old, a future #1 or #2 X receiver at worst. Alternate Choices: TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (red zone beast), WR Cody Latimer (James Jones clone – fast riser, probably gone).
3) C.J. Fedorowicz, TE, Iowa – My second favorite TE for the Packers after Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. Fedorowicz has excellent size, enough speed, big hands, a willing blocker.Though not the best in any category, he might be the most well-rounded TE in the draft. Alternate Choices: FS Terrence Brooks, DT Ego Ferguson.
3b) Taylor Hart, DE, Oregon – Has the 5-technique body type, tall and stout, but could stand to add a few pounds. Hart is ready and willing to doing the thankless tasks often asked of 3-4DEs. Has also played DT in college. Alternate Choices: DE Trent Murphy, DE Will Clarke.
4) Brock Vereen, SS, Minnesota – Opened plenty of eyes at the combine after having been flying way under the radar. One reason was he never had a set position for the Gophers. He was asked to play all four secondary positions and showed a great team-first attitude by doing so. Alternate Choices: FS Dezman Southward, DT Caraun Reid.
5) Charles Leno G/T, Boise State – Looking for an OL “Mr. Versatility” in this spot. A tackle in College, Leno has the perfect body type for a move inside, which he asked to do at the Senior Bowl. He was also seen taking snaps at center in practices during the week. Alternate Choices: OG Brandon Linder, OG Brandon Thomas (injured).
5b) Kenny Ladler, FS Vanderbilt – Quicker than he is fast, but great footwork and fantastic instincts easily make up for that. A hard-working student of the game, Ladler was his team’s leading tackler two years in a row – no small feat. Alternate Choices: QB Brett Smith, C Corey Linsley.
6) Prince Shembo, OLB, Notre Dame – Seems like every year I over value a late round OLB prospect, thinking he’s too good to last past round four and he ends up in round six. So, I’m trying to outsmart myself and picking my fourth round OLB here in the sixth. Shembo is one of the hardest workers on the field, plays with a passion for contact and is a sure tackler. Alternate Choices: LB Carl Bradford, LB Trevor Reilly.
7) Matt Hazel, WR, Coastal Carolina – Ted loves his small school wide receivers, and Hazel might have what it takes to be a good #3 possession receiver in the NFL. 4.46 speed, good hands, good route runner – needs to get stronger to fight off press coverage. Alternate Choices: WR Jeff Janis (unlikely he’s here after his 4.37 40 on his Pro Day), WR Marcus Lucas.
Note: Coming up late this afternoon will be my annual. “Last Minute Prediction, Opinions & Whispers.”——————
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Jersey Al Bracco is the founder and editor of AllGreenBayPackers.com, and the co-founder of Packers Talk Radio Network. He can be heard as one of the Co-Hosts on Cheesehead Radio and is the Green Bay Packers Draft Analyst for Drafttek.com.
59 thoughts on “My One and Only 2014 Packers Mock Draft – ALLGBP.COM”
At this point you are better off throwing darts at a list of names…
Only after the first pitcher is done and the second is on the way…
you should do it and see what you come up with…
I think Big T is still reliving his fantasy draft pick of Marshall Newhouse.
Here’s my Packers Mock.
Like the first two picks: I think Shazier could be the fast front-seven presence this defense really needs, and Moncrief is one of my favorite WR in this draft. I don’t think either makes it to the Packers in their respective rounds, though. Both Vereen and Ladler have the chance to be solid players and leaders on whatever team takes them, and getting two players of that quality at the S position means they don’t have to draft a corner if they don’t want to (although I bet they take one on day 1 or 2).
Honestly, I don’t see the Packers taking a TE early in this draft. With the WR position as thick with talent as it is, and the TE position being relatively meh, I think the Packers invest in putting players behind Nelson and Cobb, and give Quarless and Bostick a chance to play.
You mention DraftTek, Al and I’m probably one of the few people who went the opposite route and found this site coming from DraftTek and truly enjoying your analysis of the picks.
I’ve been beating the drum for Bucannon since I first started my own look at the draft and seeing one of my favorite draft analysts agreeing just makes me that much more thrilled about the prospect he is.
My question, if we trade back in the first where, ideally, would you want to end up to get him and/or assuming he makes it to round 2, how far up do we have to jump from 53 to get this kid?
Well glad you found us! I’ve been told that NE and SF both like Bucannon enough to draft him in Rd 1, but that doesn’t mean they will if someone higher on their board drops down. If he makes it past there, I think you would have to get to around pick 40 or better to nab him…
I saw a trade possibility I would hate if it happens. SF trades their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks to the Dud Bears for 14 so they can take Beckham. It gives SF a great WR and Dud Bears would have 5 picks between 30 AND 77. They could take Bucannon at 30, a very good CB and WR in the 2nd, and DL, another DB, or a LB in the 3rd, still leaving them a 4th, 5th, and two 6ths…yuk!
Just because they would have a stockpile of high picks doesn’t mean they would use them well.
Man, I have read everything there is on the draft. Here is my final draft. If we don’t get an inside linebacker with speed and one player that can actually contribute in the safety position, we will not have a great draft. Now, if we get Mosely or Shazier and either Ward or Buchanon, we can put a championship caliber team on the field. Absolutely no doubt.
I just don’t see Shazier, Mosley, Pryor or Dix making it to #21…especially given that other teams will know those players would represent good value and need for the Packers and could jump over the Packers in trade.
I think that Shazier or Mosley could make a difference as rookies, although I’m not so sure how much impact a rookie S will have on this defense.
I’m a betting man. One will be available at #21. With that, what do we do if we are looking at Beckham Jr. at #21. If all these D guys are gone, then there will have to be quality offence to ponder as well.
Too true: if those guys are all gone, someone needs to slide. My guess is that’s a good point to move down (if there’s a taker) and it might even be worth it to undervalue the pick a little to make that happen.
Otherwise, I guess you take the guy you like best, even if it is a little bit of a reach. Not a fan of Beckham, myself, but I don’t evaluate talent for a living. Recently, with the build-up to the draft, I don’t do much work at all…
I find it hard to believe that none of the 4 you mentioned won’t be at #21. If that were to happen then absolutely move down and get 2 more top 100 picks. That would give us 6 top 100 and we could make a killing w/ depth more than immediate quality.
I could see either of the Safeties being a PT player w/ Burnett and Hyde starting. But Hyde going to dime CB and a Safety coming in. Especially if its not a 1st round Safety, but even if its Clinto-Dix or Pryor that could still be the case.
We’re too good right now. Quality not quantity. The Browns need quantity, we don’t.
Just saying if those 4 players are gone, then trade down. I don’t want that by any means, but if Clinton-Dix, Pryor, Shazier and Mosley are all gone, I don’t like the alternatives at #21 and would move down for more picks. Beyond those 4 I know there are other players worth the pick, but they wouldn’t be a big help to the Packers.
Last 5 Years – Green Bay has drafted more lineman (offense plus defense) than any other team. Everyone has Pack picking a Safety, Linebacker, CB and even a receiver in the first round. If it is a lineman don’t be surprised.
Only possibility I can think of is Louis Nix, but that would piss me off…
I know we need D and more D ,but I have visions of Cooks scoring TDs in every which way.
If Shazier, Mosley,HaHa, or Pryor are not there I wouldn’t mind Hageman maybe in a trade down. However, I still think we need a top C and WR/returner.Love the TE’s (Fedorowitz, Jenkins or the ND TE)
Hageman is a nice gamble if we trade down. He’s a beast. TT has blown so many high picks on front 7 tweeener types that I think he will be gun-shy going that direction again. At the very least, he needs to learn to stay away from tweeners in R1. Hageman certainly is no tweener. The motor issue keeps him from being a top 20 pick but he won’t last pick 40. Late R1 is his sweet spot.
My question is: if you’re the Packers, can you afford to gamble? They have enough holes and enough positions that could be improved that a safer pick might make better sense than the boom-or-bust type.
No, please no gambling in Round 1.
I call him Ra-Shede Houdini-man—great and then disappears.
I’ve never liked the word “project” or the phrase “needs motivation” when applied to first round players.
Hageman is a giant Turd. Ive watched a ton of big 10 football and the only thing that stands out about him is that he is 6’5 and 300+ pounds, he gets pushed around constantly and provides zero pass rush. Stay away from anything Minnesota related
Agree on Hageman. Disagree on Minny comment – I really like Brock Vereen…
yeah, Vereen is okay prospect(forgot about him), I don’t think GB has a University of Minnesota player on their roster, wondering who was the last one…..
BPA. Repeat that over and over. While I think TT will take a defensive player if he exercises pick 21, he should not tie himself to either side of the ball with the #1 pick. After R1, needs can be factored in more strongly.
Having said that, the only offensive players with a chance of being on the board at 21 and of interest to the Pack at 21 = Beckham and Ebron. But TT may see it differently.
My experience re: NFL Draft goes back to the mid-60s. In my experience, there are almost always players available at your pick that you did not expect. This is especially true the lower you draft in R1. Thus, I think a defensive player worthy of pick 21 will be available when we draft, assuming we keep our pick. My dream scenario is Anthony Barr falls to us but I can’t see him getting past ARZ at pick 20 so a trade w Miami would be in order in that scenario. Heck, if Barr gets past TN at 11 I’m looking for ways to trade up to get him. I would almost guarantee that at least one of: Fuller, Mosley, Shazier, Dix and Pryor will be available at 21. While I would take Shazier, Fuller is about as enticing: covers like a CB and tackles like a S. Mosley scares me (damaged goods) and Dix/Pryor just don’t strike me as super star S prospects. If Teddy has a shot at Shazier/Fuller he should go for it. Otherwise, trading back, at the right price, would be the way to go. Once you trade back to the top of R2 it would be easy to trade down again to the 40 to 50 range. At that point, there should be tremendous value at many positions. If TT finds a way to get three R2 picks to go with his two R3 picks, that would be quite a fivesome.
Troy Niklas TE ND is not getting much late hype but I gotta think TT and MM are in love with him. With extra R2 picks it would be a no-brainer to grab him with pick 53. I agree the Iowa TE is a good Plan B if Niklas gets away.
Have fun all tonight and FRI-SAT as the class of 2014 gets ushered into the NFL.
I agree that Fuller would likely be available at 21, but my guess is they could trade back a few picks and still have a shot at him, as well as making Bucannon and Ward less of a reach. Fuller at that point would make sense, too, and gives the Packers flexibility in moving Hyde back to S or maybe putting Fuller there to begin with. Some of the knocks on him certainly make him sound like a guy who needs to play CB.
My dream trade scenario is Houston wanting to get back into round 1 to get a QB trades picks 33 and 65 (846 pts)to TT for picks 21 and 161 (827 pts). TT takes Bucannon or ASJ at 33 OR some GM has the night to decide he has to have a certain player and overpays for pick 33. TT drops back a half dozen picks and gets an additional 4th.
Doesn’t work like that. GB wouldn’t have to give up #161.
All I know is I’ll be as ecstatic if GB picks Calvin Pryor as I was when Cobb was drafted. Seen Pryor play many times for U of L. The guy is a flat out player, don’t let the combine times or his alleged lack of coverage experience fool you.
Oh, and glad to see Archie is on his meds today. He can be good contributor when he’s not all negative.
Pryor is far and away my favorite of the four players (Shazier, Mosley, Dix) that have been kicked around for the Packers. I love his toughness and he makes things happen.
I do believe one of the following will be available to GB(if they stay at 21):
Lewan, Donald, Barr, Martin, Beckham, Dennard, Ebron or Dix. I guess you could argue all but Lewan and Martin(not Lewis and Martin) fill needs. So if either of those two are available, do you take them. It worked out when the Pack went BPA in 2005.
Four hours until draft party at my house. You guys are all invited… All the Crown Royal you can drink.
Big T, I’m proud of you for posting something so positive! Crown Royal for everyone. Nice!
Al for a change you and I agree. I’ve been on the Shazier and Moncrief trains since the draft process started. Shazier had to see him at 237 at the combine, but that did it for me.
Huge Moncrief fan. He’s not there yet, but his upside is like a Jordy Nelson IMO. More athletic and not quite as physical but same overall ability.
Out of the top 3 picks if we could get Shazier, Moncrief and Brooks I would be ecstatic! Shazier and Moncrief fit the draft slot, but have to move up to get Brooks IMO.
Except that I have Shazier penciled in at ILB not OLB. Shazier isn’t big enough to play OLB in a 34 scheme. At OLB in a 34 he doesn’t have the build to hold the edge and he won’t be able to gain much more weight. He’s about 20 lbs too light for 34 OLB. Perfect ILB tho…
I realize I’m swimming against the tide with Shazier as OLB, but I do believe it would work. And as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I do believe we’re going to see some straight out 4-3 played this year. A lot of factors are pointing in that direction…
On passing downs the Packers are more or less playing a 43 type D. And w/ the use of the Elephant End there will be more player w/ a hand on the ground. Shazier would be especially effective in sub packages more than in base 34. But that’s the reason for drafting him is his ability to be a do everything every down player, not so much his value as specifically an ILB in base D.
I guess I don’t consider the use of an Elephant End to be moving to a 43 scheme, but a variation of the 34 D that includes a OLB/DE w/ his hand on the ground.
I would get behind your picks as I think Shazier would clearly bring things to the table that Capers has never,ever,ever had in a GB uniform. Daryl Washington without the off field garbage, a demon on those A gap blitzes with too much speed for O line to handle and no QB in the league is gonna out run this kid. A teaming of Matthews,Shazier, and Peppers, could force SO MANY more big plays it would be ridiculous. NO WHERE TO RUN, NOWHERE TO HIDE KAP
Moncrief would be clearly more talented and physically gifted than Boykin and the rest of the group behind Cobb,Nelson. He does catch an awful lot of balls with his body, but so did Antonio Freeman, it worked for him.
He’s only 21. Still learning…
I’m really impressed with Shazier’s measurables and explosion. I just hope he can make a habit of initiating contact. arm tackles and “catching” the oncoming ball carrier isn’t gonna work as well in the NFL.
Except that’s not how Shazier tackles. Shazier is a hitter, moreso than Mosley who is the guy that is a catch tackler of the 2 of them.
Shazier arrives w/ speed and explodes upon tackling. “Striking tackler — uncoils on contact.” Does that sound like a catch tackler to you?
I’m not talking about a scouting report. I’m just talking about a few instances of video that I’ve seen. Sure, he has some good hits. Whether Mosley also has those is irrelevant.
Saw the movie Draft Day Monday night. Being a draft hound I enjoyed it but for most it is probably a 2 star affair. The one thing that I learned was how predatory other GMs are in trying to get another team’s GM to do stupid trades. Bottom line is you have no friends. And it takes real cajones to wheel and deal in that crowd. It is akin to a high stakes poker game where guys go all-in with nothing at times. It struck me that TT can not possibly play this game (trading) as well as most. He just doesn’t seem to have the personality for it. So instead he makes little trade-downs or trade-ups and never gets a veteran player when there are two teams interested. Which makes you wonder what the whole story was behind his trade-up for CMIII. He paid a hefty price but that didn’t matter when he hit the jackpot. That was so not TT that I have to think somebody (KG? DC?) was pushing relentlessly for that trade. Has anyone ever heard anything on how that trade went down?
we never get any of that good inside stuff, probably better that we don’t though, for everyone’s sake. Teddy reminds me of Dustin Hoffman, Rainman, when he came out for the pre draft news conference it looked like he crawled out of a cave.
My gut tells me strongly that Fuller will be gone before Shazier.
It’s probably even money on Mosley v Shazier.
Ditto Dix v Pryor though maybe Dix is favored. I favor Pryor over Dix.
Who goes first, Pryor v Shazier seems to feel like 50-50 as well.
Could all five be on the board at 21? 11 offensive players could go before 21 if 3 QBs go. But I think the max defensive players that could go before hitting any of this group is about 8. So at least 2 of them will be gone. More likely, I’d say 3 or 4. But at least one will be there. Take it to the bank! Which one is a crap shoot but I will say Shazier.
I don’t see the Packers using #21 on a CB. Even considering Hyde moving to Safety and Tramon’s contract expiring. Packers are really high on James Nixon as a CB in another year or so and House just needs consistency.
You can never have enough CB’s, but not at #21 IMO. Maybe in the 3rd round or so, but I bet they see how Nixon and House develop before using a 1st round pick on CB.
Rolle could also develop as a contributing CB.
Fuller paid a visit to Dud Bears and the Chi Trib mentioned Fuller played some S. Maybe teams think he has the frame to add 5-10 lbs to his 190 body and be a FS.
Ooops, redo on my math. At least two of those 5 will be available at 21.
One of the insiders has said today and yesterday, “he has heard that Marqise Lee WR USC will not get past pick 21” not sure where he got it, think it was Jason LaCanfora. I could live with it and get behind it if all the LB’s and top CB’s are gone. I am not a believer that Dix or Pryor are really even top 25 prospects.
Al – I just want to say thanks for all your time and effort on the draft and for your comments and insights on the possible picks. Your mock drafts are basically the only ones that I follow closely. Personally, I have been terrible at trying to figure out who the Packers will take with their first round picks over the years, so I don’t even bother anymore. My gut tells me that TT is either going with BPA or he is going to trade down. I’d be fine if we end up with 2 more picks in the top 100. We’ll see. Hopefully, we will be able to make some sense out of it all when the draft is done. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since ’61
I hope we trade back and find someone that gives us an early 2 and 3 for 21. I like 2-2’s and 3-3’s better than our current 1,2,3,3. I am struggling to find anyone that I love at #21. I like the value in 2 and 3 better. GoPack!
do think that tomorrow will almost be more exciting to watch/follow, we will start tomorrow with 3 picks if nothing happens to change that tonight. I kind of like the group of players between 25-70 and value they could bring, lot of players I like in that range.
After the fact – good discussion and two defensive guys did fall to us – Dix and Dennard, and we had a good trade down offer on the table. And Dix was the pick. Let’s hope he does better than George Teague.
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