5 Reasons why the Packers will beat the Patriots (and 1 reason they might not)

Bill Belichick

The main reason I write these 5 reasons posts is to mock, ridicule and tear down the Packers’ weekly opponent and/or their fanbase. Since the Packers play the Vikings, Bears and Lions six times each season, I usually have plenty of material to work with.

But how am I supposed to make fun of the Patriots? They’re a model NFL franchise, in the same class of the Packers. Tearing down the Patriots would make me seem petty and mean, wouldn’t it?

I don’t know. Maybe.

I suppose I could rip Patriots’ fans for being entitled East Coasters who don’t appreciate everything their team has accomplished the last 15 seasons.

Or I could rip Tom Brady for saying things like this and once having hair like this.

Playing the (alleged) murderer at tight end card is also an option, but we’ve done a pretty good job forgetting about that already.

What about Spygate? The Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl since they were caught cheating in the 2007 Spygate scandal. But that was before everyone thought Roger Goodell was an evil corporate woman-hating monster, so people didn’t get overly mad when Goodell let the Patriots off with a slap on the wrist.

Bill Belichick seems like a total douche. How about ripping him? They guy keeps winning, so people give him a pass.

Or how about all the Boston homers on ESPN and the Patriots apologists that permeate the national media?

I could go on and on, but I won’t talk about any of those things. The Patriots are just so perfect, after all…

Here are five reasons why that perfection will be disrupted by the Packers later today:

Deep passes
Tom Brady is an amazing quarterback, neck and neck with Aaron Rodgers for best in the league. But if I had to pick a quarterback to complete a deep pass, it wouldn’t be Brady. Brady completed over 50 percent of his passes that traveled 20 yards or more in 2007. Since then, he hasn’t come close to that percentage and is only completing 34 percent of deep passes this season according to Pro Football Focus. Obviously, the Patriots are more than capable of winning without launching deep passes, but if Brady overshoots a couple of open receives downfield like Teddy Bridgewater did last week, it’ll be a boost for the Packers’ defense.

Lambeau Field advantage
The Packers have outscored opponents 219-85 at Lambeau this season. Combine that with the fact that I’ll be in the stands, and the Packers’ homefield advantage is real.

Josh Boyd
The Packers are going to need all the help they can get to slow down the Patriots’ offense. Out of nowhere, Josh Boyd has started playing well. Seriously, he has. Watch him the last couple of weeks and you’ll see a guy darting through gaps and generally being disruptive in the base defense. Winning 1-on-1 matchups up front is going to be the key to the Packers coming out on top later today. Boyd’s been winning more than he’s been losing lately.

Tight-end production
Who needs Gronk when you have Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers? Ok, ok, ok, I’m being factious, but Quarless and Rodgers have steadily improved in recent weeks. If Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner frustrate Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, it’s nice to have a couple of tight ends for Aaron Rodgers to turn to, even if they aren’t one-man wrecking crews like Rob Gronkowski.

Balanced attack
I’m a little hesitant to get too hyped up about Lacy’s big game against the Vikings. Yes, it’s nice that he gained 125 yards and closed out the game, but if you ask any Packers’ opponent if they’d rather see Lacy run the ball 25 times at the expense of Rodgers throwing a couple extra passes downfield, they’ll gladly give the extra carries to Lacy, even if he’s having a good day. Against good teams like the Patriots, the Packers will live and die on the arm of Rodgers. Lacy will come in handy if the Packers build any sort of second half lead or have an opportunity to close out the game in their four-minute offense. Again, I’m not dragging down what Lacy means to this team. Having a run/pass balance when both facets of the game are effective is a good thing. But let’s not forget that the Packers’ go as Rodgers goes, especially against the NFL’s best.

If the Patriots win this game, we’re going to have to listen to people bloviate about how the Packers can’t win a big game against a quality opponent with a good quarterback for the rest of eternity. It’ll drive me crazy, but it could happen because of…

If you’re getting old like I am, odds are good you played the arcade game “Rampage” growing up. While little Army men shot at you and helicopters tried to take you down, your “Rampage” character — either a giant gorilla, lizard or werewolf — destroyed buildings, ate people and stomped on vehicles. The entire point of the game was to cause as much destruction as possible before you were taken down. That’s Rob Gronkowski in a nutshell. Gaining yards and scoring seems like a bonus to Gronk. His main objective is to just cause chaos and reign destruction upon whomever gets in his way. I have no idea how the Packers, or any team, can stop Gronk. I suppose you just have to grab onto him and hope he falls before he knocks down all of your buildings, or eats all of your defensive players.


Adam Czech is a a freelance sports reporter living in the Twin Cities and a proud supporter of American corn farmers. When not working, Adam is usually writing about, thinking about or worrying about the Packers. Follow Adam on Twitter. Twitter .


19 thoughts on “5 Reasons why the Packers will beat the Patriots (and 1 reason they might not)

  1. If you’re the good-luck charm at the stadium, and I buy that, then I am the good-luck charm jinxing players in fantasy football.

    3 weeks ago, I traded FOR Calvin Johnson. The Lions proceeded to score a total of ZERO touchdowns and Johnson got me crap for 2 weeks.

    So this week, I traded Johnson for Gronkowski.
    I figured that was the best way, best chance that Gronk didn’t kill us.
    I don’t trust Capers.

  2. My thought on the reason the Pats might win? Bill Belichik.

    No one is more capable of game planning to cancel your strengths and more adaptable and quicker to make in-game, real-time adjustments. Whatever adjustments the Packers have to make will probably happen during next week’s film sessions.

    Here’s the key difference between MM and Belichik:

    Imagine they’re both captains of a supposedly unsinkable ship that is cruising the waters of the North Atlantic. A crewman shouts, “Iceberg

    MM looks at his operations manual, sees his process notes indicate that if he sees an iceberg, it’s possible to ram it. He calls out the command “Full speed ahead!”

    Given the same scenario, hearing the same warning, Belichik looks out from the helm windows and calmly says, “Turn”.

    There’s a reason one guy is 19-9 in the post-season, the other one 6-5. When the lights are brightest, one guy shines and the other guy melts. And, sticking with the theme, the world needs to stow the Spygate crap – that ship’s already sailed.

    Like anyone making a prediction, I may be wrong, but at today’s close it’ll be back to 2nd place in the NFC North. It’s a big game, with huge implications to the Packers and for MM that typically means it’s egg-laying time.

    1. You are right Savage, that ship has sailed and your hero Belichick hasn’t won a Super bowl since then, laying 2 eggs against the Giants, plus 7 others, and his playoff record without cheating is 10-9. One game above .500 same as MM. Not to mention, he was one play away from losing all 3 of those Super Bowls. Anything can happen, that’s why we play the games. I’d rather stick with my guys and be wrong about a meaningless prediction, see my comments below. Enjoy the game. Thanks, Since ’61

      1. Hero? Hardly. A very good football coach? Unquestionably.

        When anyone excels in their given field of endeavor, their critics, be it from jealousy, resentment, team “loyalty”, what have you, are incapable of respecting their accomplishments and have no option but to find flaws and represent them as fatal – as well as never overlooking them. In my heart, I always remain optimistic that my team will carry the day, but as someone whose existence relies on seeing the absolute and pragmatic truth, no matter how represented, I’m capable of accepting and reconciling an undesirable outcome, no matter how contrary to my personal biases they may be.

        And with football being the capricious game that this is, I codicilled my thoughts with the disclaimer that they have as much chance of being wrong as you feel yours do of being right.

        The difference between us is simply that I don’t feel compelled to call others out for their opinions, regardless of how they might disagree with mine.

        1. I agree that Belichick is a masterful coach, although you’d have to take into consideration that the AFC East has been one of the weakest in football for the past 15+ years. The Bills have not been to the playoffs since 1999, the Jets have not won a division title since 2002, and the Dolphins last division title and playoff appearance was 2008. Conversely, the NFC North has been more balanced, with the Vikings reaching the playoffs in 2009 and 2012, the Bears reaching the NFC title game in 2010 and the Lions reaching the playoffs in 2011. Belichick will always be a great coach, but his level of divisional competition has been weaker.

        2. Savage – sorry that you feel that way. I didn’t think there was anything in my response that “called you out”. Rather just presenting the other side of the argument. My comments are about Belichick’s record and nothing personal. I have plenty of respect for Belichick but I won’t give him the game before it’s played. As for reconciling undesirable outcomes I prefer to wait until if and when one actually happens. In this case if an undesirable outcome actually does happen it means little or nothing for me to reconcile. The Packers have lost before and the sun has always come up the next morning. I deal with issues that make sports (as much as we love it) seem infinitesimally small. Next week there will be another game and we will go on from there. As I mentioned earlier, enjoy the game. Thanks, Since ’61

  3. The Pats can be death by a thousand cuts. They don’t need to throw deep to score 40 points. Whichever defense plays best today will win. That’s a scary thought for Packers fans.

  4. Adam – without getting into specifics, let’s just say that I wish I was getting older like you are. I passed that stage a while ago. My memories of a Rampage are Ray Nitschke demolishing his opponents all over the field. I’m pretty sure that was long before Rampage came out as a game. As for today, your article and many others have all mentioned the same advantage for the Patriots, Gronk. OK the Pats have a great Tight End. The Packers are better at WR and RB with Lacy, Cobb and Nelson. Aaron Rodgers can throw the deep ball and quite well. Plus we have Davante Adams, Quarless and R. Rodgers and maybe Bostick today. These are all capable 3rd, 4th and 5th options. On defense our DBs can handle the Pats WRs and we can hold down their ground game with CM3 playing inside. I’m not sure what the plan is to defend Gronk but at least part of the plan needs to include a strong pass rush up the middle to force Brady off his spot, make him move, maybe gets a couple of sacks and a pick or two. The fact that he can’t throw deep should help our defensive plan. What is most important in this game is the Packers OL. If they execute and block well for Rodgers, as they have been the last few games, Rodgers is going to find open receivers. Then there is Lacy running the ball and catching it in space. Maybe we should be talking about how the Pats are going to stop Lacy when he catches the ball rather than worrying about Gronk. Of course the Patriots can win this game, but so can the Packers. We’re at home, we’re playing well, we’re healthy, maybe some of the ghosts of Lambeau, like Lombardi and Nitschke, come down off the ring of honor and help out today. In any case, I’m expecting the Packers to make a heck of a game of it. Relentless attack on offense, reckless abandon on defense, no retreat, no surrender, no let up, no prisoners. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since ’61

    1. Agreed. Gronk can’t win the game by himself. He’ll get his catches and maybe a TD or two, but one guy can’t win by himself. Also you mentioned “Plus we have Davante Adams, Quarless and R. Rodgers and maybe Bostick today.” Don’t forget about Jarrett Boykin. I know he had a groin injury, but am disappointed at his lack of use after having nearly 50 catches last year.

      1. That guy has dropped si many balls this season he is basically unusable. I had high hopes for Boykin but when I saw him drop at least 5 passes over the first few games I lost all hope. He’s been thrown at plenty of times this season and he might have 5 catches if he’s lucky. He’s been a liability.

        1. I do recall 2 drops, but I also recall two other passes sailing high over his head too. According to Yahoo, he’s only gotten 9 targets all season, which is hardly plenty of targets. He got 3 vs. the Jets (1 catch, 6 yds) , 4 vs. Detroit (1 catch, 11 yds), and then 1 target vs. Chicago and Philly (0 catches). I agree he has not made enough plays, but he’s not getting the opportunities either. We saw what he could last season with all the injuries. He will wind up somewhere else and I’m confident he’ll be a solid WR2 or WR3.

  5. I have heard and read all the analysis on this game and there is nothing surprising, not that there should be. Two great QB’s, two very hot teams. How are the Packers going to cover Gronk? What will Belicheat do to cover Nelson and Cobb? In the end, it will all come down to execution. Schemes are great but players have to execute. There is one thing that I have not read too much about and that is Rodger’s ability to run with the football. Not that he is Kapernick (thank God), but keeping plays alive with his feet is a definite advantage Rodgers has over Brady and I would not be surprise if this game comes down to a crucial run by Rodgers.

  6. I’m actually rather confident. Our secondary can handle their WR’s, they’ve dealt with much tougher. Rodgers and Lacy is a lethal combination. Our OL has been excellent for some time. And as for Gronk, I like that our one major weakness, Hawk, has become only a two down player, (I wish it was less), with Mathews Hyde/Heyward roaming the middle, and a little help from Richardson, I think we handle Gronk. Revis will be glued to Cobb or Nelson and watching as Davante or Boykin runs by him. I feel better about this game than I did about Minnesota. The biggest reason, we win… Rodgers. He knows this is a big game for the Pack, but for him as well. He wants this challenge. I saw him throw 22 straight completions against Southern Cal when they were a powerhouse. This is a guy who hates being under appreciated and he will enter a zone we haven’t seen yet. Now I need to get ready, I have 50 yard line seats. Pack wins big, 45-21.

    1. Great seats! I think it’ll be closer than 45-21 though. As good as Brandon Browner is for New England (former Seahawk), his lack of speed is well known and will need safety help whether covering Cobb or Nelson. Pack needs to take advantage of that, as there will be openings in coverage.

  7. Too many times the Packers just didn’t show up for the big games. Just show up and play hard and smart, and I’ll enjoy it whatever the outcome.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Belichik has a game plan already guessing that GB will focus on Gronk, and Belichik,uses Gronk as decoy the whole game, and plans another secret weapon such as Tim Wright. That would be like him to be a step ahead of MM.

  8. We may a have a rematch with NE at season’s end in Arizona. It will be good to play them now as opposed to only once in the Super Bowl. A few years ago we beat the Giants at home and in the playoffs they returned the favor. So, if we do happen to lose today, I hope we learn some valuable lessons for later.

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