Fresh into Summer 2014, my thoughts turn not to the escaping the humidity “down the shore” as we say in NJ, or enjoying a sticky, dripping soft serve cone at our favorite ice cream shop. No, my thoughts turn to Super Bowl XLIX and what the Packers odds are to win.
Hey, don’t judge…
While not an avid gambler, I’ve always been intrigued by the so-called “futures” bets. Instead of betting on the winner of this weeks’ game or who wins the coin toss (a “prop” bet), I’d rather take a chance on predicting some huge future event, like a Super Bowl, for instance.
Anytime I’ve made it to Vegas, I’ve always put some money down on the Packers to win the Super Bowl. I just missed winning on Super Bowl XLV, having unfortunately just visited Vegas the year before and bet on the Packers to win at 15-1 odds. That was the year of that crazy playoff loss to the Cardinals that still burns whenever I think about it.
But back to this year. Looking at the latest odds at http://www.bettingsports.com/nfl/, I’m a bit surprised that there is no team under 6-1. With the NFL Champion Seahawks the deserved favorites, I’m also surprised that the team they dismantled in the Super Bowl, the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos, are right behind at 7-1. Are they calling the Seahawks rout a fluke?
The top five is rounded out by the Patriots (9-1), 49ers (15-2), and Packers (10-1). Personally, I’d have the 49ers as the second favorites to win it all. I felt last year that Seattle and San Fran were the two best teams in the NFL and nothing has changed in my mind.
I’d also rate the Packers third, overall. I’m building more and more confidence in this team, especially with the improvements to the defense and the reported vigor the players are attacking OTAs with. It’s been my contention that Mike McCarthy teams have been a bit too “professional” in temperament and needed a little more attitude. Enter Mike Daniels. With his recent comments about the need for more nastiness, especially on defense, I’m hoping his attitude is contagious and this is a different defense in 2015.
Should you find yourself in Las Vegas this year, be sure to head on down to the Sports Book in your hotel and place a few ducats on the Packers to win it all. I think you’re getting a good deal at 10-1.
4 thoughts on “Super Bowl Odds to Consider on a Summer Evening”
I’m putting down $1000 on the Pack. It will be fun going back to Vegas to watch the Packers in the SB, then it will be just as much fun collecting my 10K after the game.
10-1? Wow, that’s a good deal. Place your bets, people!
The guys who set the odds aren’t so much in the business of determining which team is more likely to win or what team was a fluke and which is on the come up.
Professional sports books and their odds makers are actually more in the business of determining the public perception of what team is more likely to win (or win/lose by how many points), and figuring out the tipping point odds-wise that will push people over the edge to bet a certain amount on either side of the bet… for the initial odds.
The idea is keep the books even, or neutral. Entice enough people to place enough money at the right odds on both sides of the bets so that the amount that people WIN off the bets is EQUAL to the amount that people LOSE. If money is too heavy on one side of the bet, they adjust the odds to attract more money on the other side until it equals out. It’s all math at this point in the game.
The professional bookies are trying make the safe money- just play the middle man, handing money from winners to losers, and make their guaranteed commission on the vig.
When you consider this is the way professional sports books approach their work (they want to make money, not risk losses), it becomes clear that the line in Vegas isn’t really about which team is better, more talented, on a hot streak, or who they think is going to win or lose- it’s really ALL about what the general public perceives about a game and how to manipulate them into betting one way or another.
Wow! oppy, you obviously know your stuff about betting odds. You weren’t by chance in the business in a former life? 😉
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