Some would simply look at this season’s week one matchup between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers to start breaking down this upcoming Saturday’s divisional playoff game. But each of these teams has made a sizable change between Week 1 and now.
So what are the changes? The 49ers have a new starting quarterback in Colin Kaepernick and the Packers have found a more productive running game. Let’s examine each of these factors as it relates to this upcoming game.
Quarterback
This is the biggest change for San Francisco. In the week one matchup at Green Bay, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith was the starter and he was extremely efficient. He was 20 for 26 with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It helped that Frank Gore added over 100 yards rushing and with Smith not under any real pressure all day. The 49ers were able to beat the Packers for the first time since 1999 and the game wasn’t as close as the score indicated.
In a week 10 game against the St. Louis Rams, Smith suffered a concussion and had to leave the game. That would be his last start and action during the 2012 season. Smith was forced to miss the next week’s game when he was not cleared to return.
Back up quarterback Colin Kaepernick filled in for Smith and threw for two touchdowns in the team’s next game, a Monday Night win over the Chicago Bears. From there, 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh declared that he would continue with the “hot hand” and keep Kaepernick under center.
Kaepernick helped the 9ers get to 12 wins an secure the NFC’s second seed entering the playoffs. He finished the season with 10 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. He had over 400 yards rushing on the season and added another five touchdowns on the run.
In his only snap against the Packers in week one, Kaepernick ran for 17 yards and a big first down. Green Bay has plenty of film on him and needs to focus hard on his mobility this week. It’s Kaepernick’s first career playoff start, but he is coming in with a lot of confidence and it’s a home game.
The Packers obviously still have Aaron Rodgers under center and it’s a good thing they do. It will take a Pro Bowl-like effort from any quarterback to beat this 49ers team and fortunately for the Packers, Rodgers is just that: a Pro Bowl quarterback nearly every week.
If the offensive line can give Rodgers time and if he can get out of his own way when a play just isn’t there, Green Bay has a fighting chance to win this game.
Run Game
This is where Green Bay differs most from week one. In that game, Rodgers attempted 44 passes. I don’t even have to look at the box score to tell you that it was not a balanced offensive attack that day for the Packers. But over the past month, Green Bay has found new life in their ground game.
Normally, a waiver pickup like DuJuan Harris would be considered an unlikely source of a late season spark for a playoff team. But the Packers have consistently found diamonds in the rough off the street who have been big contributors. This one just happens to have come at a near perfect time for Green Bay.
Harris takes some of the pressure off of Rodgers and gives opposing defenses something to think about. San Francisco’s front is very solid and I don’t expect a big day from Harris. But his role here is more to set up everything else. A screen here or a delay there can freeze the 9er defense long enough on the next snap to allow Rodgers to hit it big.
If the San Francisco pass rush is having success, Harris could also become a good safety valve as he was last week against the Vikings.
In the first meeting this season, 9ers running back Frank Gore posted over 100 yards and a touchdown in his team’s win at Lambeau Field. It can’t happen again, plain and simple. Since week seven, Gore hasn’t gone over 100 yards in a single game. Ironically that is when Kaepernick took over at quarterback.
What Does It All Mean?
While neither team has undergone a total overhaul, it is a whole new contest between them this time around. Besides, the playoffs always seem to bring about an added “X-factor” that teams can’t really prepare for. The 49ers are three point favorites at home and since most home teams automatically get 2.5 points in their favor, the odds makers are essentially calling this one a toss up.
We all made our predictions but as the week moves along, I am becoming more certain of one thing: I am really not certain who wins this game. The changes add a fun element and give anyone with an audience something else to analyze about this game.
The NFL is all about adjustments, preparation and focus. We will see who wins that battle on Saturday night!
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Jason Perone is an independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on AllGreenBayPackers.com
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One other big differance,is our rookie defenders are much improoved
Another difference: the refs. The replacement officials were letting the 49ers defensive backs mug our receivers all game. Hopefully the real refs watch the contact a little closer.
It’s the playoffs. Refs lay off the defenders and let the players play
Good point. Hopefully our d-backs realize this and aren’t afraid to mug their receivers.
so the only change for the team that kicked the crap out of the Packers week 1 is that they now have a better quarterback.
yet some people still think the Packers are going to win.
34-17 49’ers.
can’t wait to see all of you make your homer predictions.
Our homer predictions are about 12-5 on the season, while your Packers Are Awful predictions are sitting at 5-12.
I’m not very optimistic about this game, but since you always seem to think we’ll lose by about 20 points a game, and we usually win, and you’ve only got us losing by 17 this week, my new guess is that we’ll win by 3.
I enjoy this site because I don’t even have to skip/scroll over cow’s comments. They’re already gone before I read the article!
It seems like the St Louis Rams were able to handle the 49ers during the regular season. Beating them at home and tying them on the road. So why is it so beyond the realm of possibility that the Packers couldn’t beat the 49ers on saturday night. A near rookie QB who is going up against one of the best defensive coordinators in the history of the NFL. If the Packers defense can generate a pass rush they should be able to rattle an inexperienced signal caller, and cause some turnovers.
that’s the thing… too many people think Capers is still a good d-coordinator.
dude’s a fossil.
his defenses don’t scare anyone.
so predictable.
I think it will take a lot of daring and creativity to beat 9ers. If MM tries too hard to establish a run game…running up the middle on first downs for 1-2 yards…then have too many 3rd down situations of 3+ yards…then it is predictable outcome. MM needs to disguish each and every down to the unexpected, work the short yardage, and run offense in the first quarter with ‘2-minute’ offense…then establish run game in second quarter…packers have a chance. But trying to establish run game early will kill the first 3 drives…then Packers are doomed.
I watched NFL replay last night of week 1.
The game wasn’t as one-sided as I thought. J-Mike a couple of critical drops. Benson looked terrible. A couple of blown coverages in that soft zone. Replacement refs were horrible for both sides. Bottom line is I’m feeling a little better about Saturdays game, I hope it’s well founded.
And I don’t think David Akers is going to be kicking 63 yard field goals on saturday night.
I’m expecting a good game that will be within a field goal. I’m picking the Packers but could see the 49ers winning also. but…I just can’t pick against Rodgers in this game. He plays so well when he has extra motivation and this game/scenario has that written all over it. If they Packers don’t turn the ball over, they win 27-24. Go Pack Go!
Ultimately Rodgers will be the difference. Has he learned how to use his running backs and checkdowns to punish double coverage and a 4-man pass rush? (be learned I mean up to the level of excellence he does everything else at QB.) If so, look for the Packers to set the scoring pace and put the pressure on running rookie boy to match the MVP. Then it will be up to a healthier and more experienced defense to contain Gore and stop one more big play than the Niners do.
Slugfest coming, watch every minute.