As the anticipation mounts for the first NFL regular season game of 2012, let’s take a look at some of the over/under proposition bets for the Green Bay Packers this year. We’ll also try to judge whether you should take the over or the under. The odds have been taken from Bovada Sportsbook.
(FAIR WARNING: I am not a gambler, nor do I pretend to be one on TV. Do not use this advice for gambling purposes, because I sure as heck won’t.)
Total Wins: 12
OVER – Call me a homer, but I think the Packers get at least 13 wins this season. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the Packers actually have a relatively easy schedule in 2012. For those who might not be as confident, you have the support of Football Outsiders, whose mean win projection for next season is 11.1 wins.
QB Aaron Rodgers
- Total Passing Yards: 4,500
OVER – Last season was the only time Rodgers has eclipsed the 4,500 mark; however, his total of 4,643 yards probably would have been higher had he played in Week 17. Rodgers is only getting better, and the talent around him is also improving. Look for him to light it up again in this ever-increasing passing league.
- Total Passing TDs: 37.5
OVER – 30, 28, 45. Those are Rodgers’ passing touchdown totals since 2009. Last year he took a big leap, and while he might not hit that total again, he should be around 40. The only thing that might eat into this is the bigger presence of a running attack.
- Total Rushing TDs: 3.5
UNDER – This is a really close one. Rodgers has at least 3 rushing touchdown in each of his past three seasons, but it’s that extra half a touchdown that makes it tough. My guess is that he’ll be running for fewer touchdowns with Benson more able to punch it in close to the endzone.
- Total Interceptions: 9.5
UNDER – Rodgers had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 in 2010, while he had 7 in 2009 and 6 last year. He makes such good decisions and takes such few risks that I can’t see him getting to 10 interceptions this year. According to Football Outsiders, his Adjusted Interceptions for 2011 was the lowest in the league at 4.
WR Greg Jennings
- Total Receiving Yards: 1,000
OVER – Jennings has racked up over 1,100 receiving yards in each season since 2008. The only exception was last year when he missed three games due to injury; nevertheless, he was still able to hit 949 yards. Despite the number of weapons on this offense, Jennings remains the top receiver and will maintain his production through 2012.
- Total Receiving TDs: 8.5
OVER – Since 2007, the only year Jennings has not made at least 9 touchdowns was in 2009. In two of those seasons, he hit 12 touchdowns total. I don’t really expect anything to change here.
- Total Receptions: 72.5
OVER – This is another close call. Over the past four seasons, Jennings has totaled 80, 68, 76, and 67 receptions. As we noted, he missed three games last year, so if we recalculate his possible total based on 13 games, he was on pace to hit 82 receptions had he remained healthy. That being the case, I think he’ll notch at least 73 in 2012.
TE Jermichael Finley
- Total Receiving Yards: 800
UNDER – What to make of Finley, that is the question . . . He has yet to reach his perceived potential, and he has also yet to reach 800 yards in a single season. I could be bold and say that Finley will finally break free this year. After all, those 14 dropped passes would have substantially raised his total of 767 yards last year. Color me skeptical, but I think he continues to disappoint.
- Total Receiving TDs: 7
UNDER – Despite the belief that Finley is an ideal red zone target with his size, he has only managed to produce 1, 5, 1, and 8 touchdowns the past four years. You have to decide whether last year is more indicative of his potential, or whether it was an anomaly that had him finding the endzone three times in one game against the Chicago Bears. I think the emerging D.J. Williams could vulture a touchdown or two with his better hands.
WR Jordy Nelson
- Total Receiving Yards: 1,050
UNDER – I find it interesting that Nelson’s numbers are higher than Jennings, though it’s understandable considering the breakout year he had. After all, he went from 582 receiving yards in 2010 to 1,263 in 2011. Of course, 300 of those yards last year came in games when Jennings was injured. While Nelson should have another big year, I think he’ll be just shy of this projection.
- Total Receiving TDs: 9.5
OVER – Just like Nelson blew up last year in yards, he did the same in touchdowns. Nelson recorded just 2 touchdowns in each of his first three season. Last year? 15. But again, 5 of those came in the last two weeks when Jennings was injured. Regardless, I think Nelson’s big play potential and physicality get him into the endzone at least 10 times this year. Though it could be close.
Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporskiFollow @ChadToporski
6 thoughts on “Green Bay Packers 2012 Over/Under Prop Bets”
I will say Nelson makes 1,200. I am sure he reaches double digit touchdowns. Jordy will make his case this year to be a Randy Moss-type of torcher.
Can’t wait to see how the overall Packer team looks on Sunday against a powerful team. I’m not sure what we have on D. The run D will be heavily tested as will the D-backs and pass rush. I hope raji and Pickett are close to a 100% and we see an improved pass rush by the rookies. The O will have thier hands full ,also. I don’t see a lot of yards on the ground,but just enough to keep the D honest . The key will be no turnovers ( come on Benson and Cobb) and good pass protection (come on Newsome). Arod must be on top of his game. Finley could be a big part of this game. What a way to kick off the season, this feels like a big playoff game. Packers 27, fortywhinners 23.
Good Luck Chad in Fantasy League – not sure but I think we play each other this week in ALLGBPAckers league. Heres some free advice -pick up Neil Rackers as your kicker (LOL)
Homer. There. I said it.
Gambling and fandom don’t mix. Gambling successfully is about deploying knowledge strategically. On the other hand, fandom is all about passion. That passion can stop you from making the bets you should and lead you in to dumb propositions. That’s why the No. 1 of sports gambling is never bet on the team you root for. Never, never, never. Ever. And don’t bet on the players, either — especially fan faves like Rodgers & Jennings, or conversely, popular scapegoats like Hawk or Finley.
It’s probably not a good idea to make bets involving the Bears or any other division rivals either. If you’re a Packer fan, stick to bets on AFC teams & college ball.
Ugh — make that “the No. 1 rule of sports gambling”.
Too bad that Aaron’s success will likely put him on the bench in the 16th game of the season.
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