How the refs can influence the outcome of Packers vs. Cowboys

What’s been the common theme whenever Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers’ offense struggles?

Sometimes pass protection breaks down. Sometimes Rodgers holds the ball too long. Sometimes Mike McCarthy gets pass-happy. Sometimes the Packers lose the turnover battle.

All of those things happen…sometimes. But the one thing that always seems to happen when the Packers’ offense stumbles is the inability of the wide receivers to overcome a physical secondary. And by “physical,” I mean a secondary that tugs, grabs, chucks, holds, and pushes receivers before, during and after routes — straddling the always-blurry line that separates illegal contact, defensive holding and pass interference from plain old good defense.

That line often seems to shift in a direction that favors the clutchers and the grabbers in the postseason. Once January arrives, the general sentiment is usually “let ’em play.” Nobody wants to see “officials decide the game,” even if that means the officials alter what they call in the postseason compared to the regular season.

When the officials allow defenders a little extra leeway, it often throws off the Packers receivers. They’re used to running free and catching perfectly placed passes from Rodgers, then scampering forward for additional yards. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are a talented group, but physicality isn’t necessarily their strongest suit. You can rattle them by pushing them around and getting away with it.

If any Cowboys fans are reading this, I’m not making pre-excuses and blaming the refs if the Packers lose on Sunday. There’s a reason illegal contact, defensive holding and pass interference are judgment calls. Sometimes the refs judge not to call them, and the players impacted by that judgment need to adjust.

The Packers often don’t adjust when the other team gets physical with its receivers. Instead of calling more short passes, screens, or turning to the running game, McCarthy keeps chucking it and Rodgers continues looking downfield. Instead of making tight throws that might force an official to call pass interference, Rodgers holds onto the ball and becomes hesitant.

I don’t believe there’s a blueprint for how to slow down the Packers offense, but if there was, getting physical with the wide receivers would be on the first page. If I’m Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli on Sunday, I’m telling my defensive backs to bully Nelson/Cobb/Adams as much possible. The refs won’t throw a flag every play, and Dallas will probably get the benefit of the doubt more often than not since it’s a divisional playoff game.

After all, what’s the alternative? Play in fear of a flag and let the Packers’ receivers run around untouched? Marinelli knows he doesn’t have the players to make that strategy work. Getting mean is the only way to go.

On paper, the Cowboys’ defense shouldn’t be much of a match for the Packers’ offense. But Dallas can make it more of a battle by pushing the boundaries of what is or is not a penalty in pass coverage.

If the officials “let ’em play,” it’ll be up to the Packers’ receivers and their entire offense to adjust and overcome.

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Adam Czech is a a freelance sports reporter living in the Twin Cities and a proud supporter of American corn farmers. When not working, Adam is usually writing about, thinking about or worrying about the Packers. Follow Adam on Twitter. Twitter .

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25 thoughts on “How the refs can influence the outcome of Packers vs. Cowboys

  1. Perhaps the Packer receivers need to come out and test the boundaries first and set the limit for the Refs which may limit what the defense gets away with…..if you know a sucker punch is an M.O. of an opponent,why wouldn’t you do it first and get things as even as possible from the start…..because nice guys usually do finish last and beat up and crying afterward.

    The Packers ‘know’ what they got to do…’Do It’ or sit in the corner and be quiet…again! 🙂

  2. I agree with your general premise of see what you can get away with and force the officials to be the bad guy. Seattle uses this tactic and the 12th man intimidation as a formula on their home field. In this light, the Dallas game almost screams conspiracy. Officials openly uncalled a 9 out of 10 PI penalty when the game was on the line. Officials penalized the Lions several times in the final critical drives when the game was on the line. Seems odd that the “let them play” was abandoned when Dallas could really use a penalty.

    Having said that, you win the game by beating your opponent going away. The Packers need to take command of the game and never let the Cowboys back in the game. If you dictate the game on both sides of the ball, not even the refs will have a chance to affect the outcome.

    1. >>The Packers need to take command of the game and never let the Cowboys back in the game. If you dictate the game on both sides of the ball, not even the refs will have a chance to affect the outcome.>>
      Well said, Razer!

    2. As someone else said, hope they follow a similar plan as the NE game , run first and build a lead,Then jump on them and never let up. Can not go into prevent mode at any point or let the refs be a factor.

  3. For the most part, all weekend the zebras let an awful lot of contact between WR/DB’s go on in all 4 games, so it underlines the probability that we’ll see even more as games and the stakes progress up the bracket.

    And that doesn’t portend well for the Packers. There’s not a guy on the WR corps that can ‘post up’ DB’s that want to jostle for position. For all their skills, the Packers don’t have a Megatron, a Dez Bryant that can defeat their man one-on-one for a ball. Dallas has fast LB’s, so counting on Q and Rodgers the Lesser as an answer isn’t smart either.

    So what is the answer? Lacy AND Starks. That’s right both of them. How many times have we seen Lacy grind down and beat up a defense, and then have Starks follow up with a splash run of 20+ yards? Answer, a lot. But how often do we see it more than once a game? Answer, a little.

    MM and AR need to shelve their splash pass bias for this one and lean on the big uglies first. If they try to force the Packers precision pass game in a setting where impedance is overlooked, the disruption of route flow and the increased probability of tipped balls will play into the Dallas D’s hands.

    The Packers defense is good, but not good enough to negate turnovers.

    1. Savage – you are correct about Lacy and Starks. This approach is also a great way to protect Rodgers from unnecessary hits and scrambles. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since ’61

  4. Since there was so much drama last week on the ‘no-PI controversy’, how might that impact the refs this game? Will refs call em tighter this week? I think they will.
    Will refs call extra tight on Cowboys, in a sort of a ‘make up’ for the dummy work last week which so benefitted the cowboys? I doubt it, but I also don’t think they’ll give Cowboys any slack this week.
    Seems like a good week for GBP secondary to go a little more physical than normal, and dare the refs to favor the cowboys this week.
    Seems like a good week to bait the cowboys into some PI situations.

    1. “Seems like a good week to bait the cowboys into some PI situations.”

      The Refs can’t let the Cowboys nibble and get away…hook ’em fast,early and reel them in.

      WOW…look at me with a fishing analogy and I’ve never been…..other than at the market. 🙂

    2. “Since there was so much drama last week on the ‘no-PI controversy’, how might that impact the refs this game? Will refs call em tighter this week? I think they will. ”

      I think you’re dead-on. The fallout of last week’s debacle this week will be a very tightly-called set of games.

  5. They don’t have the size to bully our outside WRs and MM probably won’t have Cobb line up outside for that reason. Besides, their Defense is going to play the Tampa 2 style, with 2 safeties over the top. Zone CB play. Not chuck-em-man-to-man.

    Eddie and Cobb are going to be the keys. Our OL is better than their DL. You beat the Tampa 2 by running the ball down their throats or inward breaking routes. We don’t have a TE capable of beating McClain up the seam so Eddie and Randall are the go to guys.

    1. We’ll see if McClain plays. He might not make it back this week, which would be a big plus for the Packers.

  6. It’s strange, but fans in general are NOT optimists. They’re pessimists. When the game is about to be played, they start obsessing about all of the things that could possibly go wrong, and whatever sort of weaknesses – whether real or imagined – that their team might have. All of a sudden, the phobias come out. By definition, a phobia is a fear that is irrational.

    So now we’re worried that the brutal Dallas d-backs are going to beat up and manhandle our girlish WRs. Without any word to the contrary, it seems to be taken for granted that GB receivers are “soft,” … y’know, uh… “speed guys.” “Finesse players” (wink, wink). We can’t expect them to play post up, even though I can think of plenty of big plays where Jordy went up and pulled down a contested ball, and Randall is a pretty dang tough mother over the middle and in traffic.

    No, all will be overpowered by the raw physicality of the Dallas passing defense… the same Dallas defense that was 26th in passing yards allowed, 29th in completion percentage allowed, 20th in yards allowed per attempt, 28th in sacks, and 30th in passes of over 40 yards.

    I’ll take my chances with the GB receivers getting pushed around.

    1. I won’t speak for fans totaling any number as to there phobias come game time,but I would take a dare an surmise that the biggest phobia being present would be of the Referee who is 30 yds away tossing a flag when the Ref who is staring at the play doesn’t.

      1. Nah. The biggest phobia is that ARod’s left calf will snap like a chicken leg. At least I HOPE it’s a phobia…

        1. If a phobia is a fear that is irrational..then Rodgers calf snapping isn’t a phobia as it is absolutely possible and therefore rational….NO?

  7. This will be a issue that favors the cowgirls big time. If you watch the Dallas/Detroit game again, you will notice that Dallas had their DBs on the line pressing against the WRs. Capers plays off 5 to 10 yards. I can pick out the WR who will catch the first down before the ball is snaped. A high percentage of the time it’s the WR who has one of our DBs lined up 10 yards off. I hate that we play soft. I miss how AL Harris played.

    1. I think the one issue that clearly favors us now is thank God the NFL scheduled this game at noon!! Finally!! We get a game that actually favors us big time playing in the sun during daylight.
      For people that don’t live in Green Bay, it’s below zero to about 5 degrees above the past two days. The Packers players are getting used to this weather. By Sunday the temps will slowly rise to 14 or so. It will seem like a heat wave for the Packers players compared to what it is right now but to Dallas getting off the plane from Texas on Saturday it’s going to feel like 50 below.
      In my opinion this noon game is a huge advantage for the Packers. The cold won’t affect them that much compared to Dallas.

      1. Ya, I hope that the weather gets in their heads early. I also see their receivers dropping cold footballs and Romo throwing off target in the cold. Go Pack!

        1. Oh, believe me, it’s effin cold here in Green Bay. For people that are reading this that are not from here, tomorrow is supposed to be -35 below wind chills. So glad the Packers are here and getting used to this weather because as the days progress as it’s slowly supposed to get warmer after tomorrow.
          Example: Monday it was brutal cold. Tue it was I think 5 degrees warmer but it actually felt much better mentally even though it was still sub zero. By Sunday 14 degrees to these players in the daylight with a noon game is a huge home field advantage.
          If it was at night and it was 35 below zero nobody has the advantage in a game like that just ask Brett Favre. That’s why I am so happy. The Packers players will mentally feel it’s much warmer where the Dallas players will have a hard time concentrating and yes, I also see a lot of dropped balls and errant passes by Romo.
          Put it this way, if the Packers lose I am demanding they build a dome. There’s no effin way they should lose a game where they clearly have the advantage weather wise and are fully acclimated.

  8. Well we already know that the refs let them play after the call was made in which changing their mind wasn’t the real issue. Bryant running onto a part of the field he had no right being on and without a helmet is the real issue. I don’t think the officials didn’t flag him because of favoritism but because they were confused over what was happening and were pretty clueless at that point.

    1. Hmm. OK. I’d take exactly the opposite point of view. I think Dez Bryant’s “involvement” is by far the LEAST important issue. Yes, it could have been called. But it didn’t happen during a live ball, and it surely didn’t affect the outcome of any play.

      I’m not necessarily talking about you, John, but I’ve heard a lot of fans who are confused about this. They say stuff like, “He’s not even an defensive player! He doesn’t have the right to be on the field.” But there is nothing inherently “offensive” or “defensive” about any player. A team can send out any player on the active roster at any time to play any position. In fact, teams do it all the time. A defensive end lines up as an H-back or a TE in goal line offense. A wide receiver plays DB when the other team needs to throw a Hail Mary. It’s perfectly legal.

      So the only issue with Bryant is a dead ball foul for not wearing a helmet while on the field. The fact that he is on the field is not a violation. Is that really the thing that we want deciding the outcome of a playoff game?

      NFL execs have already decided that Pettigrew’s grabbing of the facemask didn’t need to be called because “he didn’t gain any advantage from it.” (Personally, I think that’s ridiculous, and it makes me wonder if Blandino has ever looked at the world through a facemask). But my point is this: If Pettigrew grabbing the defender’s facemask during a live play is too “ticky tack” to impact an important playoff game, do we really want the game to be changed simply because Bryant didn’t have his helmet on?

      1. I respect your opinion, but “live ball” doesn’t matter because there is such a thing as dead ball infractions. Once he came on the field without a helmet he violated one rule and coming onto the field under any circumstances from the sideline to argue is a penalty on anyone. Once he came on without a helmet he gave up any claim to be a “special agent of defense”.

        1. Ok, fair enough. Of course, I do agree that there is such a thing as a dead ball infraction. I just don’t think that having your helmet off while the ball is dead is that serious a thing. Just a different viewpoint, I guess.

          How about we just agree to kick some Cowboy butt this weekend and call it a day?

          1. I’m all for that. But being a lifelong Packer fan living in PA and having to listen to Dallas fans forever and the media’s America’s team BS I’m a little tilted, lol! And Dez is such a, well I hope we have a great weekend.

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