While not exactly Packers news, I don’t think there are many readers of AllGreenBayPackers.com who aren’t at least a little bit interested in one Matt Flynn, who parlayed a couple solid games (including a spectacular week 17 game against Detroit) into a stepping stone to a NFL starting quarterback. Most fans were sad to see Flynn go, who might have been the best backup quarterback in the league, but with the demand for quarterbacks as high as it is in the NFL, many fans were happy with the compensatory pick that Flynn would likely net the Packers.
Fast forward a couple months, and the story is quite different; Flynn was signed to a lucrative contract, but nothing remotely close the deal many were expecting; I was the first to assume that Flynn would get something in the ball park of Kevin Kolb, another backup with lots of potential but not a lot of tape, who had received a 6-year $65 million contract, but Flynn got a 3 year, $19.5 million deal instead.
Also inexplicably, the Seahawks front office has decided the best way for Flynn to get used to his new team is to throw him into a quarterback competition with Tavaris Jackson (who realistically is first trying to make the team) and 3rd round rookie Russell Wilson (also signing Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards makes little sense to me either). To me this means that Seattle isn’t all too confident in Flynn’s abilities, which is understandable considering Flynn played with some of the best offensive talent in the NFL and didn’t play all that much to boot (then again Seattle did pretty well with another Packers backup in a similar situation named Matt Hassellbeck).
With all this in mind, one interesting question is: Could the Packers get Flynn back? While he might not be a starter, I would say that he’s definitely capable of playing at a high enough level to cover for any Aaron Rodgers injuries and probably win a fair share of his games as well.
Here are the specifics of Flynn’s deal:
v Base: 3-year, $19.5 million total
- $10 million guaranteed (divided into three parts)
- $6 million signing bonus
- 2012 salary ($2 million total)
- $2 million of his 2013 salary ($5.25 million total)
- Additional $5 million of escalators
- Additional $2 million of “unlikely to be earned” incentives
- Yearly breakdown
- 2012: $2 million
- 2013: $5.25 million
- 2014: $6.25 million
So how much would it cost to get Flynn back with the Packers? Since the $6 million composing Flynn’s signing bonus is paid the moment he signs his contract (although technically the new CBA allows teams to divide the signing bonus evenly throughout the length of the contract, so in this case the Seahawks would pay Flynn $2 million for 3 years), the Seahawks are on the hook for $6 million regardless of what happens to Flynn. That means straight off, Flynn’s contract to the Packers is worth $19.5-$6 million = $13.5 million, which comes out to a yearly average of $4.5 million dollars a year.
Another distinction to note is that while Flynn’s 2012 salary is fully guaranteed and around 40% of his salary is guaranteed in 2013, none of Flynn’s contract is guaranteed in 2014 meaning the Packers could cut him without penalty. So really, Flynn would cost the Packers $7.25 million or $3.6 million a year over two years, which is very manageable. Maybe a little expensive for a player who hopefully will never see the field, but to give you a comparison, James Jones makes around that much and he’s anywhere from the 4th to 5th wide receiver on the roster.
So what situation would have to occur in order for Flynn to be traded back to the Packers? First, something catastrophic (like potentially career ending) would probably have to happen with Aaron Rodgers (and then maybe Graham Harrell too), in order for Ted Thompson to be willing to trade the high draft pick in order to get Flynn back (maybe throw in James Jones?). Also, Flynn would also likely have to play relatively poorly in the eyes of the Seahawks staff and get benched in favor of Russell Wilson. I would also assume it would have to be a relatively high draft choice unless Flynn falters so poorly that the Seahawks see him more as dead money.
Will this situation ever occur? I highly doubt it, while desperate Ted Thompson did pull Mark Tauscher out of retirement to play right tackle after the mess with Allen Barbre, Tauscher was a free agent and thus cost the team nothing in terms of draft compensation; most likely any advantage Flynn has in terms of familiarity with the scheme and team is offset by the cost it would take to get him back in Ted Thompson’s mind. Perhaps most importantly, Seattle would likely have to be so enamored with Russell Wilson (which reportedly they are very smitten with the diminutive quarterback) that they would be willing to cut their losses with Flynn at the tune of at least $6 million (plus what ever Flynn’s prorated yearly salary is at the time of the trade)
In my opinion, I don’t think there’s anyway that Flynn doesn’t ends up being the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks for at least this year, being successful as a rookie quarterback is pretty hit or miss, but stranger things have happened. Personally, I hope to see Flynn start against his old team on September 24th when the Packers visit the Seahawks.
——————
Thomas Hobbes is a staff writer for Jersey Al’s AllGreenBayPackers.com.
——————
How Much To Get Matt Flynn Back on the Packers?
I thought the slow season for news was over and that making up ridiculous senarios would be held back until next off-season.
Also…can we please STOP with the JJ trading in any senarios,he isn’t going anywhere as proved by the uninspired play of the wonder boys from the PS or the new street urchins that came to try.
street urchins?
People love the Jones’ trade scenarios; I don’t know why (as I agree with you, though I’m not entirely sure I follow the wonder boy-street urchin analogy), but people seem to really want to trade Jones
Street urchin was the wrong description…but,when so many want JJ traded and the whole we have Gurley,Borel,and the newbies of Moss,Gileylen,Boykin added with the fact that none of the above,especially the 1st two listed,have come close to warranting a dismissal of DD.
Simply,JJ is our next best WR that can play to any decent level if DD,GJ,JN get hurt or lost for a long time.Putting to much faith in what are still..could be on the street in two weeks WRs to fill in for any of the above or even JJ if traded is..ridiculous!
I don’t some mind “thinking outside of the box” posts at all. Don’t worry, there will be plenty of on-field articles forthcoming for your entertainment…
I thought it was an interesting scenario, especially with all the news coming out about the Flynn/Wilson/Jackson QB competition
Taking the QB competition in Seattle serious means one must take Pete Carrol serious.
“…..who might have been the best backup quarterback in the league…”
Until we actually see some trending in his week-to-week play isn’t using the above to prop up his overall ability the equivalent of winning a prize for being the tallest midget?
Interesting thought piece though, I’m just not convinced anything can take a team to s Super Bowl when something devastating happens to your starting QB. From what I’ve seen, I’m confident Flynn can ‘compete’ against most NFL teams. I’m not convinced he can play at a high enough level in critical games, over time, to make any playoff noise whatsoever.
Good luck to the kid, I’m cynical about his starting abilities.
Part of the game is predicting how players will perform if they don’t have the tape to back it up. Sometimes you get Jason Piere-Paul, sometimes you get Matt Jones. Do I think Flynn could take the team to the Super Bowl? Actually I think it’s possible, if he plays like he did in week 17 every week. Now is it realistic that he could be that consistent? Of course not, but his ceiling is high enough that he could conceivably win the Super Bowl.
Again, interesting article, but you and I part ways in regards to Flynn’s ceiling. I believe it’s very limited and you basically watched it against the Patriots. Can’t drive the ball consistently down field between the hashes in tight spaces, especially beyond 20 yards with consistent accuracy and can’t drive the ball with any accuracy outside of the hashes at 20 yards or beyond.
The best season he could give you would be comparable to what Alex Smith did last year for San Francisco, only Flynn is magnitudes less athletic. Too many fans (just my belief) are giving far too much credit to Flynn for what he did against the worst secondary in the NFL last year in the Lions. Where, admittedly, he made the wrong reads several times and his receivers still caught the ball to take it the distance.
I don’t see him cracking a top 15 QB status at his ceiling. Prematurely, I’ll place him in the 20-25 range among starters.
Let’s quit talking about Arod getting hurt, please. This article also is negative in regards to Harrell not being an adequate back up. It’s pre-season, which is a time to be positive. Besides, the only way Flynn is expendable by Seattle is if he dosnt perform in a starting capacity . TT probably would not make a trade in this case. Flynn would probably have to be cut for TT to go after him.
Actually I mentioned that in order for this scenario to come out, you’d probably have to have both Rodgers and Flynn out for a significant amount of time.
I would also argue that Thompson would want Flynn back as a back-up, he was more than happy with Flynn these last couple of years and he isn’t looking for starting capacity right now.
Thomas Hobbes, my initial thoughts were that you have WAAAAAYYY too much time on your hands! But then, I remembered that Pete Carroll is the Seattle coach, and that pretty much leaves the door open for anything, so I’ll cut you a little slack. Still, it can’t be that difficult finding something worthy to write about this time of the year, can it?
lol, I’m actually quite surprised by how many people think this was outlandish, I mean have you seen some of my other articles? 😛 All I have to say is Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. QED
Two wacky statements always make me chuckle…
1) “The Packers are doomed if their starting QB goes down!!!” Uh, yeah. And this is true of every single team in the NFL.
2) “In this league, you gotta have a first rate backup.” Actually no, you’re screwed one way or the other (see #1, above). How’d those Texans do last year with their “first rate backups”?
Heck, lets go two more…
1) Flynn wants to play. He wouldn’t have stayed in GB even for a better offer.
2) I still need to be convinced that Flynn is really that great anyway. I doubt he would be worth the money as a backup.
My answer is AR, Jennings, CM3, etc. and the Salary cap. Backups by virtue of the Cap must be low cost.
James Jones is essentially a backup and he’s making roughly the same amount. I think $3 million a year for the most important position on the football field is probably worth it, maybe a little extravagant, but definitely not Albert Hanesworth
Relatively speaking, of course. Jones probably was on the field in all 17 games last year. Flynn got a charity start and maybe 2 late 4th quarter appearences. By definition a backup QB is an insurance policy. How much should you pay for the premium?
Sorry Thomas, $3 mill a year is too high for a backup QB, and as many have stated, probably won’t win you a SB anyway. I don’t know how the potential Jennings – Lang re-signings would hit this years cap, but I’d rather spend the money there. Plus as someone said above, Flynn doesn’t want to be anyone’s backup anymore.
How about a Doug Pederson scenario? Let Flynn play out his contract in Seattle and find out that he is not starter material and then come back to the Packers as a career back-up. Not a bad way to make a living if you ask me.
Despite my chagrin, I will huldde under the table as I say, the bengals. The turn-over in players from last season and many seasons prior has done the team some good. The trading of Mr. Chad Ochocinco and Mr. Carson Palmer has increased the overall morale. Without so much of the negativity, I think they will do much better this season. Now, let’s talk about T.O.