Category Archives: NFL Odds

15

July

NFL MVP odds – Packers Rodgers Behind only One Other Player, Lacy Makes List

Aaron Rodgers - NFL MVP

Aaron Rodgers – NFL MVP

As I’ve written previously, I’m always intrigued by NFL “Future” or “prop” bets.”  Last time around, we took a look at Super Bowl odds for all the NFL teams. (If you need more info on Super Bowl betting, be sure to check out SuperBowlBets.com).

This time around, let’s take a look at the current odds for the player who will win the NFL MVP award in the 2014-2015 season (odds are provided by Bovada.lv, formerly Bodog).

ODDS TO WIN NFL MVP

 

Peyton Manning 3/1
Aaron Rodgers 6/1
Drew Brees 7/1
Tom Brady 9/1
Andrew Luck 16/1
Jay Cutler 20/1
Matthew Stafford 20/1
Colin Kaepernick 22/1
Adrian Peterson 25/1
Calvin Johnson 25/1
Robert Griffin III 25/1
Russell Wilson 25/1
LeSean McCoy 28/1
Nick Foles 28/1
Cam Newton 33/1
Matt Ryan 33/1
Philip Rivers 40/1
Tony Romo 40/1
Ben Roethlisberger 50/1
Marshawn Lynch 50/1
Eli Manning 66/1
Jamaal Charles 66/1
Jimmy Graham 66/1
Julio Jones 66/1
Matt Forte 66/1
Brandon Marshall 75/1
Demaryius Thomas 75/1
Dez Bryant 75/1
Andy Dalton 100/1
Arian Foster 100/1
Chris Johnson 100/1
Rob Gronkowski 100/1
Alex Smith 150/1
Alfred Morris 150/1
Antonio Brown 150/1
Demarco Murray 150/1
Eddie Lacy 150/1
Joe Flacco 150/1
C.J. Spiller 200/1
Frank Gore 200/1
Johnny Manziel 200/1
Eric Decker 300/1
Geno Smith 300/1

Interesting stuff:

Only three running backs crack the top 20; Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch.  AP & McCoy certainly deserve to be in there. Both play on teams without an established QB and are more likely to be the star on their team. As much as I like Marshawn Lynch (if only Ted had traded for … oh, never mind), he is unlikely to be MVP in a Russell Wilson-led offense and should probably be in the 100-1 range.  Much like Eddie Lacy will never be “the guy” in a Rodgers-led offense.

Only one wide receiver makes the top 20, Megatron at 25-1. Next closest receiver is Julio Jones at 66-1.  Same odds as tight end (or wide receiver or whatever) Jimmy Graham.

Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford are both higher than Colin Kaepernick, Russel Wilson, RGIII and Cam Newton. Oh come on… Really? Is marijuana legal in Vegas now too? I suppose it should be – would probably make as much sense there as anywhere.

Eric Decker makes the list? Vegas does know his QB is no longer Peyton Manning, right?

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24

June

Super Bowl Odds to Consider on a Summer Evening

2015 Super Bowl oddsFresh into Summer 2014, my thoughts turn not to the escaping the humidity “down the shore” as we say in NJ, or enjoying a sticky, dripping soft serve cone at our favorite ice cream shop. No, my thoughts turn to Super Bowl XLIX and what the Packers odds are to win.

Hey, don’t judge…

While not an avid gambler, I’ve always been intrigued by the so-called “futures” bets. Instead of betting on the winner of this weeks’ game or who wins the coin toss (a “prop” bet), I’d rather take a chance on predicting some huge future event, like a Super Bowl, for instance.

Anytime I’ve made it to Vegas, I’ve always put some money down on the Packers to win the Super Bowl. I just missed winning on Super Bowl XLV, having unfortunately just visited Vegas the year before and bet on the Packers to win at 15-1 odds.  That was the year of that crazy playoff loss to the Cardinals that still burns whenever I think about it.

But back to this year. Looking at the latest odds at http://www.bettingsports.com/nfl/, I’m a bit surprised that there is no team under 6-1. With the NFL Champion Seahawks the deserved favorites, I’m also surprised that the team they dismantled in the Super Bowl, the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos, are right behind at 7-1. Are they calling the Seahawks rout a fluke?

The top five is rounded out by the Patriots (9-1), 49ers (15-2), and Packers (10-1). Personally, I’d have the 49ers as the second favorites to win it all. I felt last year that Seattle and San Fran were the two best teams in the NFL and nothing has changed in my mind.

I’d also rate the Packers third, overall. I’m building more and more confidence in this team, especially with the improvements to the defense and the reported vigor the players are attacking OTAs with.  It’s been my contention that Mike McCarthy teams have been a bit too “professional” in temperament and needed a little more attitude. Enter Mike Daniels. With his recent comments about the need for more nastiness, especially on defense, I’m hoping his attitude is contagious and this is a different defense in 2015.

Should you find yourself in Las Vegas this year, be sure to head on down to the Sports Book in your hotel and place a few ducats on the Packers to win it all. I think you’re getting a good deal at 10-1.

5

September

Green Bay Packers 2012 Over/Under Prop Bets

Jermichael Finley

How many receiving yards will Jermichael Finley have in 2012?

As the anticipation mounts for the first NFL regular season game of 2012, let’s take a look at some of the over/under proposition bets for the Green Bay Packers this year. We’ll also try to judge whether you should take the over or the under. The odds have been taken from Bovada Sportsbook.

(FAIR WARNING: I am not a gambler, nor do I pretend to be one on TV. Do not use this advice for gambling purposes, because I sure as heck won’t.)

Total Wins: 12

OVER – Call me a homer, but I think the Packers get at least 13 wins this season. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the Packers actually have a relatively easy schedule in 2012. For those who might not be as confident, you have the support of Football Outsiders, whose mean win projection for next season is 11.1 wins.

QB Aaron Rodgers

  • Total Passing Yards: 4,500
    OVER – Last season was the only time Rodgers has eclipsed the 4,500 mark; however, his total of 4,643 yards probably would have been higher had he played in Week 17. Rodgers is only getting better, and the talent around him is also improving. Look for him to light it up again in this ever-increasing passing league.
  • Total Passing TDs: 37.5
    OVER – 30, 28, 45. Those are Rodgers’ passing touchdown totals since 2009. Last year he took a big leap, and while he might not hit that total again, he should be around 40. The only thing that might eat into this is the bigger presence of a running attack.
  • Total Rushing TDs: 3.5
    UNDER – This is a really close one. Rodgers has at least 3 rushing touchdown in each of his past three seasons, but it’s that extra half a touchdown that makes it tough. My guess is that he’ll be running for fewer touchdowns with Benson more able to punch it in close to the endzone.
  • Total Interceptions: 9.5
    UNDER – Rodgers had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 in 2010, while he had 7 in 2009 and 6 last year. He makes such good decisions and takes such few risks that I can’t see him getting to 10 interceptions this year. According to Football Outsiders, his Adjusted Interceptions for 2011 was the lowest in the league at 4.
6

August

Playing the Over/Under Odds on NFL Season Win Totals: Packers at 11.5

Over/Under Odds on 2011 NFL Team WinsThe MGM Grand in Las Vegas took the plunge and posted Over/Under NFL season win numbers earlier this week. the Packers open at 11.5  I always like to jump on these numbers ASAP, before Vegas makes necessary adjustments.

If you don’t like to throw your money away by trying to outsmart the oddsmakers, season win totals always make for some good discussion. Lets take a look at each team’s over/under and try to figure out a couple of strong plays.

AFC EastJets 10
Besides San Diego and New Orleans, the Jets are the only team with a double-digit total that I would feel comfortable betting the over. With the exception of both New England contests and road tests at Baltimore and Philadelphia, their schedule is filled with winnable games.

Patriots 11.5
Does New England have the pass rush to warrant betting the over? It’s a big number and not a good value bet, but betting against New England probably doesn’t have much value either. I’m staying away.

Bills 5
If Buffalo can manage to avoid starting 0-3 at Kansas City and home against Oakland and New England, they should manage to reach six wins…barley.

Dolphins 8
There’s no way you can find eight wins on the Dolphins’ schedule. Hammer the under.

AFC North

Steelers  11
If the Steelers can survive the first portion of their schedule, they end with Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Francisco, St. Louis and Cleveland. It’s still going to be tough to get to 12 wins, though. Stay away.

Ravens 11
My conservative nature says stay away, but Baltimore has a shot to win 12 games with Cincinnati on the schedule twice and non-conference games against the entire NFC West, right? But 12 is still a big number, and my conservative nature wins. Stay away.

Browns 6.5
Just when you think the Brows are cruising to seven wins and money in your pocket with an over bet, they play the Steelers and Ravens four times in the season’s final five weeks. If they can win one of those games, and beat Arizona in Week 15, they’ll go over. I’m not convinced that will happen, so I’m staying away.

Bengals 7.5
The Bengals are terrible. Hammer the under.

AFC South