Category Archives: Mock Draft

14

May

So You Want To Trade For (Insert Player Here)…

Every draft season, there are a couple of players that Packers fans and media members gravitate towards.  This year for instance, there was a lot of love for Ohio linebacker Ryan Shazier, safety Deone Bucannon and wide receiver Jordan Matthews.  Last year there was a lot of hope that the Packers could land either safety Kenny Vaccaro or Giovanni Bernard (mostly drummed up by our own Marquise Eversoll).  Some fans will always claim that the Packers should have traded up to grab the player of their eye, but in reality, trading up in the early rounds is prohibitively expensive and more importantly, it’s not like Ted Thompson actually knows which teams are going to draft which players; Thompson might have a pretty reasonable and logical guess but I don’t think anyone would have predicted the Eagles drafting Marcus Smith with the 26th pick this year for instance.  This of course snowballs and makes it harder and harder to predict picks as more players come off the board in unexpected ways.

But what if he did?  Let’s play a hypothetical game where we find out that Ted Thompson has acquired a football crystal ball and knows exactly which teams are going to pick which players before it happens.  In this scenario of perfect clarity, Thompson knows exactly how much it would take to nab the player he covets the most, how much would it take for the Packers to get the player you want? Let’s set some ground rules:

  1. For the sake of argument lets limit the game to the first 3 rounds
  2. Let’s assume that Thompson would have to “steal” the selection, meaning he would have to hop in front of the team who ultimately selects the player Thompson wants; for instance Eric Ebron was selected with the 10th overall pick, but Thompson would have to trade to the 9th overall spot in order to draft Ebron.
  3. Let’s also assume that the Packers trading partner would be happy with a relatively fair deal, while they obviously aren’t going to take less that true value, they also aren’t unrealistically asking for 3 first round picks like the Texans purportedly were for the 1st overall pick.
  4. Let’s assume that the higher the draft pick, the more the other team is going to want before accepting the trade; there might be only a couple of players that a certain team wants in the 1st round, but probably many in the 7th, hence the difference in value needed to make a trade in the 1st round will naturally be higher as well.
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9

May

Who’s Next for the Packers? Looking Ahead at NFL Draft Rounds 2 and 3

The Packers used their first round selection to acquire Ha’sean Clinton Dix, a safety from Alabama (Jason must be cheering).  By all accounts it was a very solid and logical pick; the Packers have sorely been missing a safety great range after losing Nick Collins to a career ending injury.  But what players are left for the Packers to select in rounds 2 and 3 tomorrow?

USC WR Marqise Lee: Considered a middle to late 1st round pick, Lee was also rumored to not get past the Packers in the first round at 21.  Obviously things have changed but Lee fits the Greg Jennings mold; while not the fastest or biggest, crisp route running, good agility and soft hands make Lee an attractive target for quarterbacks.  It’s unlikely that the Packers will have the option of picking Lee at 53, so it might take some trading up to get there.

Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews: Sporting an impressive blend of size and athleticism, Matthews fits the mold of Jordy Nelson, which is the bigger wide receiver with an impressive catching radius that also displays a good understanding of route concepts.  He isn’t as fast or as explosive as Nelson but would offer a similar attractive redzone option for Aaron Rodgers.  Another plus is Rodgers has seen Matthews up close by watching his brother Jordan Rodgers play at Vanderbilt and also has cornerback Casey Hayward and safety Sean Richardson to vouch for him.  Matthews is predicted to be selected somewhere in the middle of the 2nd round and could be available for the Packers.

Washington TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins: With the uncertainty of Jermichael Finley and the rest of the tight end core, tight end is a logical position for an upgrade.  Seferian-Jenkins was highly touted as the best tight end prior to the 2013 season, but a DUI conviction and a foot injury discovered at the combine that required surgery have chilled his stock somewhat.  Nevertheless, Seferian-Jenkins displays impressive size and speed with a wide catching radius.  He lacks the top end speed to really take the top off a defense, but will still contribute as a huge safety valve and red zone threat.  Seferian-Jenkins also is a willing blocker which means he can legitimately be on the field on all 3 downs and will likely help Eddie Lacy’s game.  Seferian-Jenkins is predicted to be selected early in the 2nd round so the Packers will likely have to trade up to secure his services.

8

May

My One and Only 2014 Packers Mock Draft – ALLGBP.COM

2014 NFL Draft

2014 NFL Draft

As the Packers’ draft analyst for DraftTek.com, I’ve been involved with more than 20 mock drafts since the 2013 season ended. They’re not entirely mine, however, as the actual picks are made by computer.  I get to input needs information, and can try to “grab” certain players (if they are available at that spot) or “lockout” players from contention.

Analysts for the other 31 teams all do the same thing. What results is the closest thing to a real draft simulation (they don’t call it a mock) I’ve seen anywhere. It ‘s quite unique and if you are not familiar with it, you really should check them out.

What’s even cooler is that on draft day, the “simulation” is updated within minutes of when each pick is selected. So, when the Packers are up at #21, it will re-run the simulation within minutes, eliminating the 25 other players already picked from contention for the Packers’ pick. So at any point in the draft, you can get a quick view at what the landscape looks like for the rest of the draft. Isn’t that rather amazing? It’s a great thing to be checking as you watch the draft unfold…

Here’s how today’s  today’s final DrafTek  NFL Draft simulation ended up:

1 Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
2. Deone Bucannon, SS Washington St.
3. Dion Bailey, FS, USC
3b) Andrew Jackson, ILB, Western Kentucky
4) Taylor Hart, DE Oregon
5) Corey Linsley, C Ohio State
5b) Daniel McCullers, DT Tennessee
6) Jake Murphy, TE, Utah
7) Matt Hazel, WR, Coastal Carolina

Picks 1,2,4 and 7 were mine.  I highly doubt Bucannon lasts past the early second and last few days have been full of speculation on Shazier being taken before the Packers pick. In all, this has been one of the toughest drafts for me to get a handle on. The #1 pick is still unknown and never have the QBs been such a complete question mark.  How they come off the board will have a lot to say what the first two rounds end up looking like.

Here’s what I’ve come up with for an “all-mine” mock draft, taking into account needs, value and trying to predict who might be available at each pick:

7

May

A 2013 NFL Draft Retrospective: What Were We Thinking?

David Bakhtiari, OT Colorado

David Bakhtiari, OT Colorado

The NFL draft is thankfully just a day away, and while I could steal Jersey Al’s thunder by posting yet another mock draft, I thought I would instead do the exact opposite and look at the Packer’s 2013 draft class and more specifically what was being said about them around this time last year.  Were the scouting reports any good and how did these players perform when moving to the NFL?  Did they show different skills in the NFL or underperform on a new team?  The following are the scouting reports from CBSSports.com immediately following the 2013 NFL draft for each player that the Packers drafted.  Certain drafted players have been omitted from the list including JC Tretter, Kevin Dorsey, Nate Palmer, Sam Barrington and Charles Johnson mostly because they were either injured for the majority of the season or didn’t really play enough snaps to really say much.

Round 1.26: Datone Jones

  • Pros: Well-built athlete with long arms and good strength, throughout. Flashes an explosive initial burst off the snap to penetrate gaps. Uses his hands well at the snap to rip free from blocks, showing a variety of pass rush techniques (swim, rip, club), as well as enough power to simply bull over offensive linemen into the backfield.Keeps his head up and locates the football quickly, showing good awareness and effort in pursuit. Has the upper-body strength to lock-out opponents and seal the edge. Stout enough to slide inside to defensive tackle, especially on obvious pass rush downs. Enjoyed a breakout senior campaign and may be just scratching the surface of his potential.Cons: A classic ‘tweener who until his senior season hadn’t ever lived up to expectations. Lacks the sustained speed and flexibility to turn the corner as a traditional 4-3 defensive end. Lacks the bulk to handle full-time duties as a traditional defensive tackle. Has a tendency to stand up as he comes off the ball, losing out on the leverage battle. Uses his hands well initially but tires quickly and struggles to disengage once his opponent has locked on.
5

May

Pigskin Paul – Packers Mock Draft

2014 NFL Draft

2014 NFL Draft

PIGSKIN PAUL’S 2104 PACKERS DRAFT

9

April

Packing the Stats: Who can the Packers find at pick 21?

Packing the StatsIn 2012, Greg Gabriel postulated an interesting hypothesis that teams use historical draft data to predict how many players at a certain position will get drafted.  I did this analysis in 2012 based on the draft board and draft selection of the Packers back then and thought it was a pretty interesting exercise.  Basically, a quarterback (regardless of the specific player) is more likely to be drafted in the 1st round than say a kicker is.  Extrapolating that further, every draft can expect to see 2-3 quarterbacks drafted in the first round and expect 0 kickers to be drafted in the 1st round.  To narrow that down even further, the Packers can expect to see around 2 quarterbacks selected before pick 21 this year and hence if they were interested in drafting a quarterback, they could predict that the 3rd best quarterback will be available for them when they pick (assuming they don’t trade the pick of course).

Naturally, the Packers aren’t likely to pick a quarterback in the 1st round, but this hypothesis can be applied to any position.  Below is the number of players picked at their respective positions up to the 21st pick from 2005 (the first year of Ted Thompson’s tenure as the Packers GM) to last year.  Also note no punters or kickers have been picked in the top 21 selections so I’ve dropped those positions from the list.

 

Sheet2

I wouldn’t say the data is all that surprising, quarterbacks, defensive ends (i.e. pass rushers) and wide receivers are the most highly drafted players in the top 21 picks while centers, guards and tight end almost never get drafted in the 1st round.  There’s also a very striking decline in the number of running backs drafted in the 1st 21 picks, with last year being only the 2nd time in 9 years that a running back wasn’t selected.

The following list is composed of the top players from their respective positions based on current rankings from CBS Sports’ NFL draft page.  One of the biggest caveats is choosing which big board to go off of, I personally like CBS Sport’s because their rankings have been the closest to the actual draft compared to other large media draft rankings. Players names which are italicized are likely to have already been selected by pick 21 and players with their names in brackets meaning that position typically won’t be picked again by the 21st round (for instance, only 1 tight end has been picked higher than 21st in a single draft so the Packers would be breaking the trend a little by drafting a second tight end in the top 21 picks.

31

March

Packers Mock Draft with a Twist – Pigskin Paul

Pigskin Paul on the Packers and the NFL Draft.

Pigskin Paul – Draftnik

I am not a big fan of Mock Drafts. I always feel like they are a lot more work than they are worth. With trades and so many front office changes every year the process of putting together an accurate sample Mock Draft seems not only daunting, but highly speculative. And since I do not have inside team contacts it stacks the odds even more against my being able to project with any degree of certainty.

So as a compromise between my own needs and those of my readers/followers I will herein present a PACKERS Mock Draft for all 7 Rounds. But this is a very simplistic effort. I am going to take the Draft concept of taking the best available athlete at the pick to the extreme. Without consideration of any variable the effort below is based upon the team taking the player who falls at exactly their pick number based on my Regardless of Position prospect rankings as of March 28th.

So away we go:

Pick 21    DEE FORD/DE/OLB/AUBURN/6’2/252      If  FORD is as athletic as most of us feel he is, then one would think that DOM CAPERS would be able to find multiple roles and places to move FORD around. And to the delight of many PACKERS fans the team could potentially have a superior pass-rush compliment to CLAY MATTHEWS.

Pick 53    MORGAN MOSES/OT/VIRGINIA/6’6/315    This long, lean athlete could be the answer to their  long term OT quality issues because of constant injuries to BULAGA & SHERROD. Ideally this pick would be at OG, but that’s the way best available works out some times. MOSES should become a solid starter in the NFL in a year or two.

Pick 85    CRAIG LOSTON/S/LSU/6’1/215        I think LOSTON is a lot closer in talent and potential to ERIC REID, 49‘ers first rounder last year, than many people give him credit for. He’s a big hitter and if you look at his Combine numbers you realize he’s an NFL caliber athlete. He would immediately upgrade the Packers S corps.

Pick 98    JEREMY HILL/RB/LSU/6’1/235       This pick doesn’t make much sense at all since the team added young depth to its backfield in the last Draft. But when at his best he’s very similar of EDDIE LACY in running style. So much for “best available athlete” in its strictest terms.