Every draft season, there are a couple of players that Packers fans and media members gravitate towards. Â This year for instance, there was a lot of love for Ohio linebacker Ryan Shazier, safety Deone Bucannon and wide receiver Jordan Matthews. Â Last year there was a lot of hope that the Packers could land either safety Kenny Vaccaro orÂ Giovanni Bernard (mostly drummed up by our own Marquise Eversoll). Â Some fans will always claim that the Packers should have traded up to grab the player ofÂ theirÂ eye, but in reality, trading up in the early rounds is prohibitively expensive and more importantly, it’s not like Ted Thompson actually knows which teams are going to draft which players; Thompson might have a pretty reasonable and logical guess but I don’t think anyone would have predicted the Eagles drafting Marcus Smith with the 26th pick this year for instance. Â This of course snowballs andÂ makes it harder and harder to predict picks as more players come off the board in unexpected ways.
But what if he did? Â Let’s play a hypothetical game where we find out that Ted Thompson has acquired a football crystal ball and knows exactly which teams are going to pick which players before it happens. Â In this scenarioÂ of perfect clarity, Thompson knows exactly how much it would take to nab the player he covets the most, how much would it take for the Packers to getÂ the player you want? Let’s set some ground rules:
- For the sake of argument lets limit the game to the first 3 rounds
- Let’s assume that Thompson would have to “steal” the selection, meaning he would have to hop in front of the team who ultimately selects the player Thompson wants; for instance Eric Ebron was selected with the 10th overall pick, but Thompson would have to trade to the 9th overall spot in order to draft Ebron.
- Let’s also assume that the Packers trading partner would be happy with a relatively fairÂ deal, while they obviously aren’t going to take less that true value, they also aren’t unrealistically asking for 3 first round picks like the Texans purportedly were for the 1st overall pick.
- Let’s assume that the higher the draft pick, the more the other team is going to want before accepting the trade; there might be only a couple of players that a certain team wants in the 1st round, but probably many in the 7th, hence the difference in value needed to make a trade in the 1st round will naturally be higher as well.