The Contract Conundrum of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb

ALLGBP.com All Green Bay Packers All the Time

The Packers are a passing team first and foremost, and Ted Thompson has taken Ron Wolf’s lamenting to heart and has always made getting weapons for his star quarterback a priority.  Whether its drafting or resigning his own, Thompson has always made a big effort to keep talent at the wide receiver position, which can’t be said for some other positions like center.  However, next season presents a unique set of challenges, namely having both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb both enter free agency by the end of this season.  While the Packers do have a relatively healthy salary cap it will be quite interesting to see how Thompson and lead negotiator Russ Ball deal with both Nelson and Cobb, who while playing the same position are almost two polar opposite players.

Jordy Nelson has been consistently one of the better wide receivers in the league, ranking as high as 2nd last year according to Pro Football Focus; he’s probably best suited for the perimeter and can use his size and deceptive speed as a deep threat for Aaron Rodgers. He’s also going to be looking for a big contract after taking a below market deal as he knows this will probably be his last big contract.  Randall Cobb on the other hand is a multi-purpose weapon that does a variety of things well, he’s a prototypical slot receiver but also has great versatility and can play running back and return kicks.  Cobb’s is likely looking to capitalize on his success early after missing out on the big money due to being picked in the 2nd round and also being in the first class under the new CBA.

I think the biggest problem with wide receivers is that there are so many of them and there are a lot of ways to be a good wide receiver.  If you think about quarterbacks, there are only a couple really great quarterbacks and they all share a lot of common traits like accuracy, poise, intelligence and arm strength.  Wide receivers on the other hand come in all shapes and sizes; Calvin Johnson plays very differently from Wes Welker but both are great wide receivers in their own right.  Some are fast, some are quick, some a big and some are small.  Does it make much sense for Randall Cobb to be looking at Calvin Johnson’s contract?  Sure they play the same position, but Johnson has such a different game it’s hard to justify using that as a contract bench mark (ignoring the fact that Johnson or Suh have the most ridiculous contracts of any player on the NFL).

However, contracts are always compared based on contract signed by other players and what I’ve done is go through and find some potential contracts that Cobb and Nelson’s agents will be likely bringing to the table as part of their negotiation tactic.  If you haven’t read NFPost mock negotiation article, I highly suggest you read this first to get a good idea of how the process works.  All contract values are courtesy of Over the Cap.

Potential contract benchmarks for Randall Cobb

Percy Harvin: 6 year, $64.245 million total, $14.5 million guaranteed

DeSean Jackson: 3 year, $24 million total, $16 million guaranteed

Victor Cruz: 5 year, $43 million total, $18.6 million guaranteed

Rationale: Cobb is probably looking at Harvin’s contract first off because it’s the biggest but also because the player most often compared to Cobb is Harvin.  However, Cobb does have the benefit of not having a concussion history like Harvin’s and also the mental issues that Harvin has exhibited likely associated with concussions that have followed Harvin through the NFL.  On the other side, Harvin got a pretty outrageous deal from the Seahawks, who also had to give up a boat load of picks to secure his trade, which obviously puts them in a position of weaker leverage.  I’m almost positive the Packers will balk at the idea of paying him in this range.  DeSean Jackson is also another good comparison to Cobb, both are electric in the return game and while Jackson has much better top end speed, Cobb more than makes up for that by being a better receiver.  The Packers may opt to start negotiations at this point, but this time Cobb’s camp might balk since Jackson probably took a lower amount because of all the negative press that followed him after his release from Philadelphia (included rumored gang ties).  I think the best comparison is probably Victor Cruz, who is also a slot wide receiver but also isn’t the fastest guy around.  Cruz also has been a model citizen with the Giants, which can’t be said with either Harvin or Jackson and also got the highest guaranteed money of the trio; Cobb also has a clean record so I think the Packers may choose to go with a lower total value but higher percentage of guaranteed money, which is a win-win for both sides.

 

Potential contract benchmarks for Jordy Nelson

Brandon Marshall: 3 year, $30 million total, $14.8 million guaranteed

Greg Jennings: 5 year, $45 million total, $17.8 million guaranteed

Vincent Jackson: 5 year, $36.3 million total, $17.7 million guaranteed

Rationale: For Nelson, this is likely his last major deal as he’s approaching the wrong side of 30 and I’d guess he’s going to try to maximize this contract.  Nelson did take a below average deal and hasn’t made a fuss about it, and likely the Packers will reward him for that.  However, the Packers really need to be careful as Nelson has been injured quite a bit and wide receivers do tend to fall off the cliff in terms of production rather quickly.  Some of this will be mitigated by having Rodgers throw him the ball, but it’s likely his top end speed will begin to diminish in the next couple of years.  The obvious benchmark would be former wide receiver Greg Jennings, who was also looking for his third contract but scoffed at the reported $ 8 million yearly contract.  I’m not sure Nelson would take a second hometown discount and I hope the Packers aren’t expecting him to sign in this range.  Another good comparison is Brandon Marshall who is another big wide receiver, however Marshall’s contract history is so convoluted with his time with the Broncos, Dolphins and now Bears as well as only being a good player when next to Jay Cutler that I’m not really sure what to make of his contract.  He obviously has talent, but also has admitted to having a multiple personality disorder and has been in the news for breaking his arm in a TV set and a very public fight with his now wife.  Vincent Jackson rounds out the trio as another bigger wide receiver who was looking for his last major contract, however Jackson fight with then general manager AJ Smith was well publicized (and mostly the fault of Smith) and thus Jackson was fined and punished which likely left no room for him to be resigned with the Chargers.  Overall, I think the best comparison for Nelson is likely Marshall as I don’t think the Packers will extend him for 5 years, however he’s likely to get more guaranteed money than Marshall which may help negotiations a little.

Overall, I think one of the two wide receivers will be resigned mid-season, as is the Packers MO and tradition.  My guess is that it will be Cobb, who is considerably younger and probably hasn’t reached his potential yet, which will make negotiations difficult with Nelson because he will likely hit free agency and the Packers will have less wiggle room after paying Cobb.  On the plus side, it should be relatively easy to keep both Nelson and Cobb as there aren’t any other major resignings that need to be taken care of; Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod are another two potential resigning options, but both have major injury issues and likely won’t be seeking top money.  Add to that the Packers won’t be carrying Jermichael Finley’s contract, who even if resigned by the Packers will likely not command that much money, and a rather deep pool of young wide receivers that aren’t going to get paid anytime soon and the Packers might be able to keep two of the most electrify players of the Ted Thompson regime.

 

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Thomas Hobbes is a staff writer for Jersey Al’s AllGreenBayPackers.com.

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  • packett

    I would like to see both re-signed. Continuity and veteran presence has to be a good for both receiver and QB, as well as developing younger players. The experience and close rapport b/w QB and veteran receivers might make the difference on 2 or 3 3rd down situations per game; and perhaps 7 pts; Which might translate into 2 more games in the win column.

  • http://grizzlymitch@bresnan.net grizzlymitch

    Cobb can’t possibly put himself in the top echelon of recievers in the league. He does not have a resume to support it. Nelson should get top five money. He has been a Packer and has taken a cut in the past. Pay him for the work that he has done and his loyalty. He will pay dividends on that investment. Cobb has to understand that the Packers will give him a fair offer and will make him a rich man. If he does not want it, like Jennings, he can move on. TT will give Rodgers the weapons he needs.

    • Ed Schoenfeld

      Harvin’s performance didn’t justify a top 3 contract yet that is what he got.

      Its hard, sometimes, to bend one’s mind around the truly silly amounts of money that are paid to players. If you look at recent contracts, Eric Decker’s yearly average of 7.25 million is 17th in the league. Brian Hartline (BRIAN HARTLINE!!!) got 6.155 million per year.

      Cobb is certainly going to demand more money than those guys, and Jordy has a strong argument that he is better than Jennings, Jackson, et al. when they got their current contracts at about the same age.

      The Packers are not going to get away with lower amounts this time, and they will need to make a serious choice about how to manage their cap going forward.

      • Thomas Hobbes

        I think Cobb has a valid point in saying that he’s better than Harvin or Jackson and more versatile than Cruz. If you believe that, then he deserves to make more than them, only problem is that these guys are way overpaid in my opinion.

        • Ed Schoenfeld

          Hence my reference to ‘truly silly money.’ But you are right, the “market” price has been pushed up by teams that felt they needed to amke a ‘splash’ signing and paid more than the ‘objective’ value of the players.

    • Thomas Hobbes

      While I agree with your sentiment, the reality is Cobb has much more leverage than Nelson at this point. Not only is Cobb a lot younger, but he does have a lot more versatility, which makes his price go up as well. Cobb was ranked 11th in the league according to ProFootballFocus in 2012, and that’s just as a WR and not as a RB or KR. Nelson does deserve to be resigned after playing the good soldier but unfortunately there is no such thing as team/player loyalty in the NFL. The brutal truth is that Nelson made a mistake in underselling his production the last time around.

    • Nopainnogain

      I don’t think there is much retroactive rewarding in the NFL. contracts are based on projected performance in the future, not past performance. besides, it’s not like players who underperform on their contracts give back money to the team. the past only matters inasmuch as what it indicates about future performance.

  • http://allgbp.com/ Chad Toporski

    Say what you will about Ted Thompson’s personnel decisions, his front office does an excellent job of re-signing guys to deals that are both good for the player and the team.

    I think the Packers need to hold on to both of these players. Wide receivers are a bit more replaceable than other positions, but these two guys have shown their value to this offense and their rapport with Aaron Rodgers. The good thing is that Nelson really seems to be a “Packers guy” who might take a small hometown discount.

    • Stroh

      I agree. Get Cobb done for 5-7M just shy of Cruz contract and Nelson in the 8-10M range similar to Jennings and slightly less than Marshall.

      • Thomas Hobbes

        I think the bigger issue is the guaranteed money, specifically the signing bonus. I’d be willing to bet the packers will have something in the range of $10-15 million of free cap space at the end of the season and keep in mind you got to take some of that away to sign a couple free agents and the rookie class. It would be much easier if say Nelson was next year and Cobb the year after that because then the Packers could stagger the big cash expenditures.

        • Stroh

          Not sure why the guaranteed money or Signing bonus will be such an issue. Its not like the Packers are strapped for cash. Once they get the annual average pay ironed out, the signing bonus can be structured to help the Packers and/or get them money up front. This years rookie deals are about done and next year both these contracts should be done before the draft.

          One thing to remember… After Cobb’s contract this year they can still put the restricted tag on him and get him for another year at about 2.5M IIRC. So unless Cobb argees to a team friendly contract, they can tender him as a 1st rd tender and guarantee him in GB for another year in ’15.

          Given that and Nelson’s age, I expect they’ll get Nelson done before Cobb unless Cobb signs a team friendly contract.

          Cobb’s upper limit in going to the Cruz contract or slightly higher if they wait till ’15.

          I would get Nelson done asap before I worry about Cobb.

          • Thomas Hobbes

            Incorrect, Cobb is not eligible for a restricted free agency tag because he signed a 4-year contract and only players with 3 accrued years qualify. You’re making yourself look bad!

            • Stroh

              Apparently you missed the IIRC! I admitted I could be mistaken! YOur making yourself look bad.

              • Oppy

                It certainly reads like the only thing you are trying to recall is the price tag.

              • Stroh

                The whole sentence is IIRC. I would have started a new sentence if it was only the 2.5M price.

  • http://www.lyrictrumpet.com Bearmeat

    It sucks – 80 million between the 2 of them is about to be off the books. But TT HAS to to whatever it takes to sign them both. We have no proven weapon at TE. With an all world QB, you are wasting years if you don’t get him some real weapons.

    For evidence see:

    Favre, Brett – 00-06
    Brady, Tom – 03-06, 08, 13
    Marino, Dan – 88-95

    There are others….

    • Thomas Hobbes

      I’m not sure where you got $80 million, but that will be spread out over a couple years so it’s not as bad as you make it sound. Chances are next to nil that Thompson lets both walk, maybe 30% that he resigns one and not the other and 70% that he resigns both in my opinion.

      • http://www.lyrictrumpet.com Bearmeat

        I’d just bet between the 2 of them they cost 80 million. The going rate for a top end WR is 40 mil over the life of the deal. Top 3 is higher.

        • Thomas Hobbes

          Actually the top end rate for a wide receiver is over $100 million, both Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald have $100 million + total salaries. 14 wide receivers have contract with values higher than $40 million

  • Since ’61

    The offense is the strength of this team, obviously. Therefore, we need to keep it intact as possible and maintain continuity as well. Also, after Cobb and Nelson we have very little experience at WR. Boykin and Myles have yet to truly proves themselves and then there is the rookie crop from this year’s draft. At TE, assuming Finley is done, we have also become light on experience. Quarless has been around a few years but has been often injured. Bostick and the rest have little to none. Cobb and Nelson are good, solid, experienced, professionals. We need to get them resigned. Chad is correct, TT does a great job of resigning his players to contracts that are win-wins for the team and the players. (See Shields). Injury free in 2014! Go Pack! Thanks, Since ’61

    • Thomas Hobbes

      I think a lot of what they do depends on what they see from their rookie wide receivers this year, specifically Davante Adams. If he shows a lot of progress, it’s conceivable that the Packers decide to only resign one.

      • Ed Schoenfeld

        It’s intereesting to think about how this year’s draft picks fit the various receiver positions. Adams as the kind of sure handed route-runner that Jones eventually turned himself into, Abbredaris as a slot receiver potentially replacing Cobb, and Janis as a deep threat (currently Nelson). With Boykin and some development from one of the other younger guys (maybe Harper or Dorsey), the position could be stocked with some depth regardless of how things play out with Nelson and Cobb.

        That said, it’s clear that keeping boith Neslon and Cobb would result in a much better unit overall. Nelson still has a few years left as a top-end receiver (and maybe more as a #3 or 4, like Driver in his later career), and Cobb has 10 more years ahead of him with what really is a unique skill set — his experiance at RB and QB let him do more than you typically would expect from a ‘slot’ receiver. So I’d like to see the Packers keep both, regardless of how much ‘insurance’ they have in the WR group overall.

  • John Zoul

    Here we go again…TT is the greatest GM…Please, the hyperbole is boring and an exaggeration to say the least. Case in point: Brad Jones, Jeff Saturday, AJ Hawk, Shields, etc. All were or are vastly overpaid. This is my opinion. I believe he is a slightly above average GM, nothing more. His first round draft choices have been on average, decent, but, with a number of head-scratchers, that were major reaches: Hawk and Justin Harrell are prime examples. Let’s hope Sherrod excels this year…He has been much better in rounds 4-7…

    • Dobber

      It’s easy to beat on the Hawk pick now, but when he was selected, he filled a need and went right about where he was projected to go in the draft. Remember that he was drafted to play the middle in a 4-3 defense, and he played that position more than capably for about three years…

      Now, with the Packers playing a 3-4 (most of the time), the #5 pick in that draft is playing the “do-the-dirty-work” Mike position. Would anyone draft someone at #5 NOW to play the Mike? I don’t think so…you can find those guys in rounds 3-5. In retrospect, it doesn’t look so good because the scheme change really didn’t put Hawk in the playmaking, Sam role. At the time, though, the pick made sense.

      My ego is prepared to handle all the thumbs-downs I am about to receive…

      • Oppy

        This.

        Hawk was the pick everyone expected at #5.

        Nitpick, he wasn’t playing MLB in the 4-3, that was Nick Barnett. Hawk was always on the outside in the 4-3.

      • Thomas Hobbes

        Actually Hawk was drafted as a 4-3 OLB, which then does justify the top 5 pick, just this year alone Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr both were selected in that range.

        • Dobber

          I stand corrected. Thanks, guys.

    • Nopainnogain

      please show us the list of GM’s you think are better than TT

      • John Zoul

        GM’s who in my opinion are superior to TT: Ozzie Newsome (Ravens), also the GM’s for the Steelers, Seahawks, 49ers, Patriots, Broncos, and Saints all have better records than Ted.

        • Dobber

          “… all have better records than Ted.”

          Clarify. Draft records? W-L?

        • http://allpackers.com Nick Perry

          Bill Belichick is one of the best, so is John Schneider and Ozzie Newsome. The 49ers had all that talent on the team before Harbaugh got there to coach it up. With that said, being 4-12 and 5-11 for so many years they should be pretty good right? Look at the Packers record since TT took over. You really can’t count 2005 because Mike Sherman buried Thompson with cap problems. In 2 years the Packers are playing in the NFC Championship game. 2 years John, that’s pretty damn impressive. My only knock on TT is not using FA enough, but you can’t argue his success.

          • John Zoul

            Nick, TT is an above average GM, nothing more. He’s made some great picks and some stinkers. Am hoping this year’s class turns into a few players who contribute immediately and down the road (this year and 2015-on). I approve of his signing of Peppers. He’s clearly done an overall good job, mixed-in with the assorted bombs of Justin Harrell, Brian Brohm, and Jerron McMillian, et al…Having ignored the safety position in the draft and free agency in 2013 was an unmitigated disaster. I feel much better about 2014 than last preseason. The picks in rounds one, two, four, and five all look like solid players. The two picks in round three both look like reaches, as well as projects. The signing of Lyera looks like lw risk, boom or bust…Am pulling for Lyera, as I believe within a year he may become our starting TE. Lastly, why do we hear so little about, Jake Stoneburner, Myles White, Kevin Dorsey, Chris Harper, and Lane Taylor?…

            • Dobber

              “why do we hear so little about, Jake Stoneburner, Myles White, Kevin Dorsey, Chris Harper, and Lane Taylor”

              Because they’re marginal NFL players who aren’t better than the players ahead of them, or the new players added via the draft or as UDFA’s this year?

        • http://allgbp.com/ Chad Toporski

          I find it odd that you put Kevin Colbert on that list. As a fan of the Steelers and Pittsburgh resident, I certainly don’t have anything against him… but the Steelers are in rebuild mode right now. You don’t hit a situation like that with a GM who knows how to keep the team loaded with fresh talent to replace the aging veterans.

          • John Zoul

            Even in rebuild mode,check their record vis-a-vis the Packers the past several years, Was at the game in Dallas for the Super Bowl and thought it was the best game the Pack played all season.
            Am hoping you get my point. I love the Packers, but, TT is far from infallible and has clearly made a myriad of mistakes: in letting Cullen Jenkins go, resigning pedestrian players to large contracts, and drafting bombs.

            • http://allgbp.com/ Chad Toporski

              I don’t really think you made much of an argument for Kevin Colbert as a better GM than Thompson there. Give me some facts!

        • Nopainnogain

          that’s a decent list, but some of them are debatable. not really sure what records you are talking about, but TT W/L is .608 over his tenure. that’s more than Ozzie (.583), Schneider (.578), and Loomis (.563) over their tenures. he’s made playoffs a greater % of the time than Ozzie and Loomis.

          Baalke isn’t bad, but he was basically handed a stacked team. Of the 29 Pro Bowl selections his team has had during his time, 21 of them were rewarded to players that were drafted/signed before he became GM. TT has had 34 selections and only 10 of them were to players of the previous regime. What’s even more impressive is that TT has had very few high draft positions compared to Baalke. Coincidentally, Baalke has been striking out alot more often ever since he started drafting at the bottom of the order. Plus, neither he or Schneider have proven they can sustain their success once their core players are off their rookie deals.

          either way, I think being a top-8 GM in the league classifies as better than ‘above average’.

    • Thomas Hobbes

      My opinion is that Thompson is a far beyond average GM, but that’s a different issue. Don’t you think it’s a little odd that Thompson can “overspend” on Jones, Saturday, Hawk and Shields, yet still manage to get a team into the playoffs essentially every season and manage to resign Rodgers and Matthews to position benchmark contracts in the same year? Thompson is going to miss on some contracts, everyone does, but he might be the best at being efficient with his money.

      • Normthe1

        Well bugger me, I just agreed with Stroh. I feel dirty…

      • John Zoul

        Hobbes, you make some good arguments. Thanks for your thoughts.

    • Stroh

      Let me know when you find another GM in the NFL that has won the Exec of the Year award 2x’s during Thompson’s tenure. That award BTW is voted on by his peers not the media or fans! If the other NFL execs think Thompson is that good you should probably recognize it as well.

      He’s among the top 5 NFL GM’s by almost any measure you choose to use. Voted by peers, media, winning % etc…

  • http://www.lyrictrumpet.com Bearmeat

    Some good news today – the beginning of the end of the 49ers under Harblow.

    http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/6/4/5780450/colin-kaepernick-contract-extension-guaranteed-money

    Kap is making more guaranteed money than ARod! AND they still have sign Crab, Smith (if he stays clean), Staley, and Iupati this year. Vernon wants a new deal and Eric Reid is 2 years away.

    Awesome. Can’t wait until Wilson gets ARod money too. Gonna be fun to watch these “dynasties” in waiting have to work with the real NFL cap ramifications that come with even a halfway decent QB.

    • Thomas Hobbes

      I think this was a forgone conclusion; I’m a little surprised that Kaepernick got more than Rodgers but he was going to be in that range one way or another. As for the rest, this is just the ebb and flow of the NFL, good teams with good rosters get slowly picked apart due to free agency. The best teams have a plan B waiting.

      • Nopainnogain

        well, the cap just went up a bunch and is projected to go up more. when the cap goes up, player contracts rise with it. that’s why new contract records are being set just about every year.

        on the other hand, I do think they overpaid. he really get’s carried by all the talent around him, especially on defense, which gives the good season records and postseason success. I’ll be interested to see how he looks when the talent around him begins to erode.

        • Tarynfor12

          “…he really get’s carried by all the talent around him, especially on defense, which gives the good season records and postseason success”…

          Yes,the Packers defense have really done him well…LOL

          • http://www.lyrictrumpet.com Bearmeat

            boo hisss…..

        • Thomas Hobbes

          Sure he’s getting help from the defense, but he’s a good quarterback in his own right; I don’t know if what he got is justifiable but there is no middle ground with quarterbacks. Hell, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo make $18 million a year.

          • Nopainnogain

            true. I just think that there’s probably at least 15 other QB’s in the league that would win alot if they switched places w/ Kap. If you go through all SF’s games, the defense really only gives up 14.5 pnts per game that the opposing offense actually earns (not result of special teams, or SF offense pick-6’s, etc). Meanwhile, turnovers caused by the Niner D basically gave the team 4 pnts per game via either direct scores or handing the offense the ball in the red zone. So that’s like a net of 10.5 pnts per game that the SF offense is actually asked to account for with meaningful drives. in fact, it’s actually less than that because I’m sure the special teams set them up for scores at least a few times.

            • Big T

              Kaperdink sucks period. He is the Tony Mandarich of quarterbacks. Please mark my words on this.

  • Wagszilla

    Cobb is a luxury WR.

    I love the guy, think he’s a great player, but wouldn’t spend big on him especially given the injury history.

    • Oppy

      When you say “injury history”, is what you mean “the one injury he had last year”?

      I don’t recall any sort of worrisome reoccurring injuries or a problem with Cobb’s performance due to being nicked up. Maybe I’m wrong and I’ve overlooked something, if that’s the case, I digress.

      It’s football. Dudes get banged up from time to time :)

      • Thomas Hobbes

        He did have an arm/elbow injury in 2012 I believe where he was having trouble holding onto the ball in the preseason but thats all I can remember. Luckily breaking your leg is actually a pretty good injury, recovery is almost 100% and not a lot of structural damage involved.

        • Stroh

          The bones provide the structure of the body. So breaking a bone is by definition structural damage. its just not permanent. Your making yourself look bad!

          Tendon’s, ligaments, muscles provide structural integrity.

          • http://www.lyrictrumpet.com Bearmeat

            Stroh…. sigh….

  • http://jersyal.com tim

    I hope & believe they find a way to sign both of these guys. Might be at the expense of other players not being back, but there’s few players more important to team success than these two.

  • jtmax

    They’re going to want Greg Jennings money. I’m fine with giving them something close but too much guarantee can put us in a deep hole if they get broken down. Receivers are not exactly protected from injuries.

  • Razer

    I doubt that the Packers will pay top dollar for two WRs. They didn’t with Favre and they won’t with Rodgers. The draft and develop at WR is the model that TT uses because he can save money and still have effective play at the position.

    We have a whack of WRs that will push for a spot. We added three in this draft to go with Harper, White, Gillet, Dorsey, etc.. I am sure that we can find 2-3 keepers out of this bunch. I can’t see tying up $80 million in two guys when we have other pressing needs.

  • Icebowler

    One factor in the Packers favor is that there are quite a few good to excellent WR’s eligible for free agency next year. Nelson said he wants to get a deal done soon, so we may get a small hometown discount since his family is said to be very happy in Green Bay. I have a feeling that Jordy would be upset if we signed Cobb before him. I haven’t heard much about Cobb’s wishes but I think he will be harder to replace and will be more expensive, due to his youth and potential upside. I’m hoping Nelson is signed soon and that Cobb is signed before the start of free agency next spring.

    PS: Does anyone know Randall and Jordy’s agents name and reputation?

  • http://allgbp.com Thegreatreynoldo

    The NFL has no love for slot receivers. It is simply easier to find fast, elusive, usually smaller receivers than true #1 outside receivers. I have previously written that if done before the season starts, look for Cobb to get $7-8 million average for 4 or 5 years with 35 to 40% guaranteed, and Nelson to get $10 to $11 million average for 3 to 4 years with 45 to 50% guaranteed.

    Marshall and Vincent got 48% and 49% guaranteed, and Jennings got almost 40%. IIRC, Jennings’ contract sounds better than it is because he is unlikely to earn some of it.

    Harvin got big yearly averages but only 22.56% was initially guaranteed ($11 million more become fully guaranteed after the 2013 season to increase the percentage to 38%). Jackson got 67% (the Redskins like to live in cap hell and I note that the 3rd yr has no guaranteed money due) and Cruz got 43% guaranteed according to your figures. Over the cap lists the top 50 receivers and shows Cruz with a $43 million contract with $15.629 guaranteed, or 36%, not the $18.6 million guarantee listed in your article (sportstrac shows these same #s, i.e. the $15.629 in guaranteed money). IDK, maybe overthecap recalculated his contract recently or added almost certain to be earned $.

  • Nopainnogain

    I know uncertainty is scary for fans, but I don’t necessarily think we must keep both of them at all costs. I love both Nelson and Cobb and would be happy to have them back, but TT has had an excellent track record in finding great receivers, and it’s really not a position that I think NFL teams need to sink $19+ mil into. People thought we couldn’t get by without Jennings, and we didn’t skip a beat. same with Driver and I anticipate it will be the same with J.Jones/Finley.

    I think it’d be better to keep one of them and use the rest to continue rebuilding the defense. Daniels and Hayward will need to be paid at some point. And who know’s if Perry or Worthy finally amounts to something. Some might call it a long shot, but I don’t want us to find ourselves in the scenario that one or two of the young guns on defensive pops but we don’t have the $$ to retain him because we overspent at a position we are good at drafting.