A year ago, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick set a single-game NFL record for a quarterback by rushing for 181 yards against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Kaepernick totaled 444 yards of total offense and four touchdowns, as the Packers were perplexed by the 49ers’ offense throughout the game, allowing 45 points to the 49ers despite a Sam Shields pick-six in the first quarter.
The Packers’ secondary, too, had its fair share of problems, as did the defensive line, but perhaps no position group was overmatched against the 49ers’ offense more than Green Bay’s linebackers. Erik Walden signed a four-year contract worth $16 million with the Indianapolis Colts this offseason, but money can’t buy instincts, and Walden is still looking for Kaepernick almost a year after last season’s dud in the playoffs.
Entering the 2013 season, the Packers were determined to be better prepared for the 49ers offense–and specifically, Kaepernick–as a rematch was scheduled for opening weekend in San Francisco.
And the Packers got mixed results. While Green Bay was able to contain Kaepernick to just 22 yards rushing, the quarterback racked up a career-high 412 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Clay Matthews and Nick Perry started for the Packers at outside linebacker that game and helped keep Kaepernick in the pocket, but four months later, Matthews is out with a (re)broken thumb and Perry, due to battles with injuries and subpar play, is now merely a rotational player.
Last January, Walden’s debacle against the read-option left many clamoring for Perry’s return to the lineup after he suffered a season-ending wrist injury as a rookie. Because, at the very least, the 270-pound Perry would be a significant upgrade over Walden setting the edge against the run, right?
As one Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friend.”
Perry played a season-high 57 snaps (of a possible 81) against the 49ers in the season opener, but he played just 12 snaps last Sunday against the Chicago Bears in a must-win game. Mike Neal–still in his first season at outside linebacker–played 47 of 51 snaps against the Bears, and undrafted rookie Andy Mulumba played 43.
Perry has battled injuries throughout his second NFL season, but he has hardly been the Packers’ knight in shining armor.
The Packers’ current defense looks a lot different than it did in September. Look no further than Jerron McMillian–who is no longer with the team–leading the Packers with 81 snaps in week one, and M.D. Jennings tied for second with 79.
The biggest difference for the Packers, however, will be playing without Matthews, who, despite not turning in his best performance against the 49ers the first time around, remains the Packers’ unquestioned top defensive player.
On the inside, it will likely be A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones against the 49ers for the second time this season. Jones sat out last week’s game against the Chicago Bears but should return this week and reclaim his starting spot. Jamari Lattimore, while impressive throughout much of the 2013 season, played poorly in place of Jones against the Bears, which will likely reduce his role to merely a rotational player moving forward.
The 49ers are tough to prepare for on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they combine a power running game with a mobile quarterback to go along with a go-to (and now healthy) wide receiver in Michael Crabtree and one of the league’s most freakish athletes in tight end Vernon Davis.
But if there’s one position group to watch when the 49ers have the ball, it’s the Packers’ linebackers. Expect head coach Jim Harbaugh to test the middle of the Packers’ defense with regularity on Sunday with misdirections and quick-hitters.
If Hawk, Jones, Mulumba, Neal, Lattimore, Perry and whoever else are prepared and able to execute, the Packers have a real chance to end their losing streak against the 49ers. But if not, it’s going to be another offseason spent scratching heads and wondering if Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers has Kaepernick on his fantasy team.
——————
Follow @MJEversoll
Marques is a Journalism student, serving as the Sports Editor of UW-Green Bay\'s campus newspaper The Fourth Estate and a Packers writer at Jersey Al\'s AllGBP.com. Follow Marques on Twitter @MJEversoll.
——————
Per Pro Football Focus grades for the 2013 season we are in bad shape if we are counting on our front 7 to stop the 49ers:
Pickett ranks 73 out of 103 DT/NT.
Out of 62 3/4 DE’s, Daniels ranks 6, Wilson 41, Boyd 45, Jolly 48, Jones 57 and Raji 60.
Out of 59 3/4 OLB,s, Matthews ranks 26, Perry 29, Palmer 51, Mulumba 52 and Neal 57.
Out of 77 ILB,s, Lattimore ranks 19, Jones 47 and Hawk 70.
That leaves Daniels, Matthews, Perry and Lattimore as legitimate front 7 starters in the NFL.
Notice the Hawk is the 8th worse ILB in football. Why does Thompson keep him around and why do the coaches put him on the field. He is horrible. Raji is the 3rd worse 3/4 DE in football. Thompson, please don’t screw this up.
Thompson has really hurt the Packers chances of a Championship with his building of this defense. We are very lucky to have Rogers and the Super Bowl opportunities that he brings. Thompson must be held accountable for not plugging the gaping holes on defense.
I would think the use of the word ‘legitimate’ is a stretch for at least one …AKA..’Perr-y-shable’
PFF is always down on Hawk. Actually I am beginning to question how precise of a system they are using. I would say that their methods seem more subjective than objective. I religiously rewatch the games to see what actually happened while I was an emotional mess, watching the game, and I have found too often that stats that we see in print and what actually happens are very different, even with PFF.
an example of this is the Alshon Jeffery fumble that was credited to Williams, but it was clearly a hawks hit that knocks the ball free.
Hawk is better than PFF credits him for.
One additional note on PFF. They have Keenan Allen ranked higher than Lacy in the ROY race, yet Allen has a lower PFF score fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, etc.
PFF is a group of guys that are as subject to bias as any other.
Any algorithm has an inherent bias built into it no matter how hard one tries to eliminate it. You can’t control for everything…and you can only rate someone based on how they appear in terms of recorded stats.
Take Daniels. If he had played base DE all season in this defense, I don’t see any way he rates as 6th. He gets–until recently–most of his snaps in situations that allow him to play to his strengths.
No algorithms. They watch every play, of every game, for every players and give that player a grade from -2 to 2 based on if they do the job they are supposed to do. Most players get a 0 for average on most plays.
To finish my thought: Wilson is almost exclusively a run-down player. An every-down player that ranks at the top of his category would be more meaningful than a situational player who ranks highly.
Am I trying to defend the play of some of these guys? Not necessarily, as we’ve seen their performances this season. Any rating algorithm (including PFF) needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s stat-creep…thanks MLB.
we do not need PFF to show us what our eyes have been telling us: Raji, Perry, Worthy, Jones x2, the entire front seven are disappointing. what does it say that on average old man Pickett is most reliable of them all, except for CM III who i am beginning to think might never play a full season. and let us not even bring up the safeties who could not start for Michigan State.
Correct you are Dobber. Here they are: It gets to be too much, that’s why I didn’t present it that way.
I will give just the ones who rank as starters in a specific area.
DT/NT No one in any area.
34 DE Pass rusher, Daniels 7, Boyd 26, Wilson 29,
run stoper Daniels 16.
3/4 OLB pass rusher Perry 15, Matthews 26,
Run stopper Matthews 23, Mulumba 25, no one in pass coverage.
ILB Pass Rush Lattimore 6, Jones 10,
run stopper Lattimore 30
Coverage Hawk 10, Lattimore 40
I watch the games over and over and all I see is Hawk continuously getting washed out of every play. Also, they don’t have a bias. They watch a position and grade it. Period.
They watch the position and grade it. Period.
Which is precisely why its flawed. They don’t even know each player precise responsibilities on each play. They grade it much like a fan would. They watch and grade only as they THINK they know what they are doing. Lets be clear about this… None of the people have probably even played or coached at a high enough level to give them credibility!
Any system that ranks Lattimore as the best ILB on the Packers must not be updated for week 17. He was atrocious.
Matthews is way better than the 26th best OLB. This has definitely not been one of his finest years but he still commands attention of the offense.
Perry & Neal are ranked far apart. Yet, I don’t see much difference between the two. To the extent there is one, Neal is better, not worse.
Same with Jolly & Daniels. Both are valuable. Jolly as a run stuffer and physical presence, Daniels as a pass rusher. I would probably value the pass rusher (Daniels) more but not by that wide of a margin. I don’t think it is any coincidence that since Jolly got banged up and played less effectively, the run defense has gone in the crapper.
Listing those rankings seems like an anti-endorsement for that site.
Lattimore’s overall grade did get lowered for Week 17. He still has played better than Hawk and Jones though.
Really, what those rankings say is that Lattimore has had less opportunity for negative plays that would pull down his ranking. I would say the same thing applies to the other guys I mentioned–Daniels and Perry.
Based on week 17, I’m confident in saying that had Lattimore had the volume of plays as Jones and/or Hawk, he would rank lower. Much lower.
Waiting to read all the excuses from the Perry fan club and how his ‘foot’ injury is of the nature that should have sat him on the IR bench.
FWIW…still waiting for a certain someone to chow down the ‘plate of crow’….all in good fun of coarse.
However,I will still hope that Perry can obtain a level of play that justifies him being selected in the draft to even be a 3-4 OLB period.
You never do give up do you? The man busted his wrist and knee up last year. This year it’s the foot. He’s not capable of playing well right now because of injuries.
Has Perry been unstoppable when healthy? No. Has he been capable? Yes. Will that turn into a full time red-chip player? YTBD. If he can’t get it together for a full year next year, we’ll have our answer.
Perry had a play that he played man instead of zone and the half-a**ed trying to make the Tackle. It was a costly play. I have been really excited about Perry and seeing that was very disappointing.
” You never give up do you? ”
NO….but like I said,I’ll stay hopeful that he can be what many..no wait,some…no wait,a few still buy into for him
Face it guys, our defense sucks. CM3 is hurt half the time. Perry is too – but hasn’t proven to be the answer at LOLB even when healthy. Neal is a 43 DE that TT never should have drafted for our 34 in the first place. Hawk is the definition of “limited”. Jones played well at ILB last year but has been bad this year. Injuries? Maybe. Lattimore is too green.
Daniels is a 43 DT. So is Raji. So is Worthy. Jolly is hurt. D. Jones is not strong enough right now to be a 34 DE. Pickett is old. That leaves a green rook in Boyd.
Burnett has been anything but good. The Dr. has been atrocious. Richardson is too green.
That leaves CB as a position of strength. And even that needs some help in the offseason. Tramon is nearing the end and his cap hit is too high to keep at his current salary. Shields is an UFA. What happens if Russ Ball tells Tramon to take a (deserved) pay cut and Tramon walks, then Shields doesn’t get resigned and Hyde moves to FS? That leaves House and Heyward.
Not. Good.
I hate how passively Capers runs the 34. But perhaps he’s just trying to slow the bleeding and hope our offense can pull it out.
Injuries have killed TT’s drafts on Defense the past 4 years. But even when injuries are considered, it does not look good for Teddy…
And regardless of weather, IMO we get slaughtered this weekend. This sucks.
“I hate how passively Capers runs the 34. But perhaps he’s just trying to slow the bleeding and hope our offense can pull it out.”
This is what frustrates me. From a basketball standpoint, what do you do if your team lacks talent or athleticism? You mess with the tempo. No talent, but athletic? You run the floor and try to win through chaos. Talented but unathletic? You slow it way down and try to let your talent win out over a minimum number of possessions.
I wouldn’t argue that Capers has been passive. I saw a stat that showed the Packers in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of blitz pct, but I’m in favor of more chaos. Pick up the tempo on defense and really get after someone.
I agree 100%. This defense needs to get off its heels, and start playing on the balls of their feet, starting Sunday.
The Packers are slow. They aren’t the most physical. But they can attack and in doing so, if they die, at least they die gloriously.
You speak the truth, Bearmeat. A grim truth…
I don’t like it BR. I really don’t. But it’s time to call a spade a spade. TT has straight up sucked on defense since the 2010 draft.
If you say TT sucked up the defense,then you must agree that Perry,Neal,Worthy,Jones are major parts of his sucking.
Isn’t the failure of the players drafted the reason for the hate of TT?
You can’t defend or hate one without the other or exclusion of any.
I don’t think Perry sucks,I think he is in the wrong position/scheme today as I did from the start when drafted.
You could be right Taryn. My only solace is that Perry HAS occasionally looked very good at 34 ROLB when healthy.
He’s probably never going to be a blue chip player. Blue chip players almost always show up by the end of year 2. BUT he’s been hurt for most of his career.
All that tells me is that when he’s not as fast as he can be, he’s not an effective OLB. Shock.
With Neal and Worthy, I completely agree with you. Both are no more than a situational rusher in a 34. Completely on TT.
Other than Hayward and Cobb, Thompson’s drafts have sucked before this year. Period, end of story. 10 of the 18 players picked in 2011 and 12 are no longer on the team. Gone, see ya later bye. Offense, defense, it doesn’t matter he just misses. Contracts? He gave Hawk $33 million after the strike. Burnett $24 million. Offered Raji $8 million, are you F’ing serious! Raji wasn’t even on the field in the Bears final drive. For $8 million I want more than the worst rated DE in football and I’d like him on the field for the last 35 seconds to decide the NFC North. NOW, if TT can hit another draft like he did in 2013 next year, we’ll be onto something. I’m not ready to give up on Perry, maybe he’s just not a LB. Look at the value he got in Daniels. (I love that guy). Please hire Wade Phillips or someone who runs that defense, and get rid of Capers. Until then, we’ll be a bottom 10 defense hoping Rodgers can outscore the other team.
When I made that statement I’m speaking of the drafts from 2010 through 2012. Before that he was firing on all cylinders. What happened Ted???
It’s called picking from spot 26 or worse every round. Kind of makes it harder to have the ammo to move up to get a proven playmaker or the hot combine guy coming out of college.
It’s a proven fact that outside of the top 10 picks in round 1 everyone is a crapshoot. TT has “crapped out” in rounds 1-3 for the most part since 2011.
You’re absolutely right Bearmeat, it’s nothing more than a crapshoot each and every pick. BUT, I think we’ll all agree that through 2009 he found those diamonds in the rough. Players like Collins, Sitton, Lang, Jones, both Brad and James were 3rd rounders or lower. If you look at the 2012 draft every player selected AFTER Daniels is already gone. The 2011 draft has left us with Sherrod, Cobb, House, and Ryan Taylor. Now if Sherrod comes through and is that monster LT next year, that would obviously be huge. What changed so much for Terrell Manning in a year that he got cut after TT gave up picks to move up and get him? He was sick as a dog his rookie year and cut the next. The more I think of it the more I agree. The draft’s a CRAPSHOOT, nothing more or less.
He signed Pickett and Woodson as FA’s to plug holes.
I KNOW AND WISH HE’S SIGN JUST TWO AGAIN!!
Kaepernick will go hog wild, the Packers linebackers and safeties suck. If they focus on the run, Kaepernick will pick them apart through the air as he did in week one. Think it was most passing yards he had prior to that game. If they try to stop pass they will gash the defense with running game.
Over and under missed tackles by the Packers is 25, not wise to bet the under on this one.
Only way to stop them is to get 4 plus turnovers, good luck with that…
We lose track of the fact that the Packers had a 4th quarter lead in that game, on the road, against a top opponent.
Did Kaepernick have a big game throwing the ball? Yep. No argument there. Has he done it since. Nope.
This is going to be a tighter game than people seem to think. I don’t expect the Packers to win, but I think it will be tight into the 4th quarter.
Yeah – but that was in the first 8 weeks of the year. You know, when we could actually… stop the run.
Why the hell can’t we do it now? Just missing Jolly? Perry being hurt? Clay being in and out?
Frustration.
I agree, if nothing more than because of the weather. I was listening to the NFL Network on XM-Radio and found myself getting so pissed off. The lame Jim Miller, the ex Bear QB is already talking about the next round and the 49ers playing Seattle or Carolina, depending what the Saints do. These morons already have the Packers out of the playoffs with no chance. I’ll sit on hold all day to call that douche Miller Monday morning should the Packers advance to remind him of his comments.
I don’t think Kaepernick is going to play particularly well. Certainly not like he’s played vs the Pack previously.
His running game won’t be as dynamic due to the weather. He won’t be able to move as well and he probably won’t want to take the hit in that cold. OTOH, the Packers LBs are so terrible, so he still might gain big yards.
I doubt he’ll light things up through the air. In fact, I doubt he’ll break 200 yards unless they get a big run off a short pass. In addition to the challenges posed by the weather, it won’t be Jerron McMillan (for sure) and shouldn’t be MD Jennings at Safety.
My biggest concern about the Packer defense is stopping the traditional run game with Frank Gore, et al.
If this game were to be played in “normal” conditions, the Packers wouldn’t stand a chance. Our defense isn’t good enough to stop the 49ers offense.
However, if our defense can’t stop their offense maybe the weather will.
I’m hoping for the absolutely most horrible weather conditions that any NFL game has ever been played in. We know it’s going to be cold–very cold. But I’m hoping for a snow storm too. The lower the score the better chance the Packers have to win this game. Go northern Wisconsin in January!
That ain’t gonna work either JH9. If ARod can’t throw the ball to our WRs we’ve got NO chance.
We’ve gotta hope for a few key turnovers and that we’ll be able to play keep away AND gash them with the passing attack. Hope for just 2-3 stops.
Then it becomes possible. SF is a better TEAM than GB is.
If some of you are so sure the Packers are going to lose, are you going to bother to watch the game?, or are you going to spend it looking at the draft picks you are going to suggest to TT? GoPack!
Scheny – You know that I am a HUGE Packer fan. I hope I’m wrong. But when I look at the matchups things don’t look good for us.
SF Rush O vs GB Rush D = BIG Adv SF
SF Pass O vs GB Pass D = Slight SF Adv
GB Rush O vs SF Rush D = Wash
GB Pass O vs SF Pass D – BIG Adv GB. IF ARod has time to pass.
GB coverage teams vs SF Return teams = BIG Adv SF.
SF Coverage teams vs GB Return Teams = Slight Adv SF.
What do you see that there is to like?
To me, this game will be about the Packers offense. Our best defense is our offense and we need to score early and control TOP as the weather takes it impact on this game. The expected weather conditions are going to be at least as bad as the NFC Chamoionship game against the Giants in 2008. The bone chilling cold impacts offensive play as it becomes difficult to handle the ball and make catches as it gets colder later in the game. This places a premium on the run game and beating the SF defense front 7. We need to be no worse than tied at halftime and hopefully have a slight lead. By the second half, the sun will be down and both teams will become human Popsicles. Hopefully the cold will impact the 49ers from the opening kickoff and we’ll get some dropped passes and maybe a tip drill pick early in the game. Our front 7 defense is not as good as SF and our LBs are our weakest link in this game due to the 9ers propensity to run the ball. Only our CBs are as good or better than SFs on the defense side of the ball. On offense we have the better QB, and WRs. Our running backs and OL are even or better than SFs. Our RBs rushed for over 1900 yards this season, not including QB runs. Our OLine deserves some of the credit for that. TE, SF has the edge. Given, that offense is the strength of our team, they need to control this game and stay on the field. If GB wins the toss this week MM should elect to receive and hopefully we get a 7 or 8 minute scoring drive while Kaepernick and the 9ers O is freezing on the sideline. We Need to keep the 9ers offense off the field for as long as possible. Limit penalties (only 1 against Chi). Get some turnovers and own TOP. This is our best chance to me. Thanks, Since ’61
I like the way you think since 61. As usual, we agree on how to approach this game. SF will play coverage and expect to rush ARod with 4 and keep Lacy/Starks from gashing them with just their front 7.
IF we can make them pay for that and play keep-away or turn it into a shootout we’ve got a chance. That’s our ONLY chance.
*However, I must quibble with 1 point of yours* We have a decent OL. Theirs is much better.
It is better. When you sucked as long as the 49ers did and draft where they did for year after year, it should be better. It’s all 1st round picks just about.
George Patton yelled out after defeating a plan of Rommel ” I read your book,you magnificent bastard”.
I read that Harbaugh was asked,”Why do you think you had such success against the Packers?”…he replied, “I don’t have that list with me at this time”.
I hope MM has written a new book for this battle as Harbaugh thinks very little of the ones already read.
Bearmeat – I could agree to give a slight edge to SF O line. They rushed for a total of 2201 yards including 500 plus yards by Kaepernick. Now I don’t know how many of those yards are planned rushes or scrambles. The Packers rushed for nearly 2200 yards withQB running yards, 1900 plus for the RBs. The issue is the Niner line vs. our front 7 on Defense. That is an edge for Niners are you correctly point out. I’m hoping that an improved and experienced Lacy can bring our running game closer to even with SF front 7. Plus some quick hits from Starks and maybe Cobb as well. If we’re ahead or close at the half, The cold may get to SF D and take some of their edge off. That could help our run game. Remember the ’65 title game against Cleveland. We came out running in the second half and took over the game. That’s what I think we’ll need this week. Rodgers was our hero last week, this week it will Lacy and Starks. Thanks, Since ’61
SF OL better damn well be better than the Packers. Right now they have 3 starters drafted in the 1st rd w/ 2 of them being top 1/2 of the 1st rd in the draft. Our current OL boosts a collection of 4th rd picks and our 2 1st rd picks are on IR. Take Staley and Anthony Davis their starting OT out of the picture and we can only imagine how their OL looks!
I do think the bitter, biting cold weather will affect the play of the 9ers. I know they are kinda built (run team w/ strong D) to withstand the weather, but its still a shock to the system that you simply cannot prepare for. If the field conditions are poor, as would be expected in Jan in GB, it will have an even more pronounced effect on SF. GB can practice in the cold, not to mention they are acclimatized to it living in it and if the field is poor (expected), SF will have major problems adjusting.
SF is the more talented D, giving them the advantage in that regard. But IMO that will largely be negated by the weather and conditions. If this game rests on the offenses, the Packers are in a favorable position. Las Vegas has the line at 3, which tells me they know SF will be affected.
Currently only 5 of 9 CBS “experts” have SF winning. If this were a regular season game, they would be much more lopsided IMO.
Kaperdink is a pussy… Just need to get some pressure on him and pop him in the jaw a few times and he will curl up in the fetal position and cry for his mamma. Then Hairbaul will spit on the refs and cry at them to win the game for him. The forty whiners are POSERS, we can and will beat them down like the pussies they are…
Your vacillation from “The Packers are garbage” to “We’re gonna win it all” is puzzling Big T. It’s almost like you are being an irrational fan.
However your language and demeaning comments towards others? THERE you are absolutely consistent. 😉
Bearmeatless, I have never once stated the Packers are garbage. You have quite a knack for trying to put words into peoples mouths. I would imagine you got beat up a lot in school and maybe even still today. You really have no clue. You truly are the demeaning coward on here…
A lot of people seem to be giving up on the Packers. As for me, I am hoping that the Saints win their first two playoff games so that the NFC Title game will be back at Lambeau Field.
Great take Since 61. I agree that the weather will be an advantage for the Packers. My brother-in-law played 7 years in the league, five of of those years with the Packers. He told me that playing in this type of weather is a huge advantage for the Packers. This should level the playing field and give the Pack a shot to shock the world.
I think the Packers have momentum and just enough talent to pull this off. Go Pack Go!!
I think a few Packers fans are spoiled. If you look across the league,how many draft picks work out they way the GM intends? I would say very few. TT has keep the Packers relevant in his tenure. Only a select amount of teams can say that. Now I’m not saying there is no room for improvement, because there is. But given the salary cap issues, the CBA rules, injuries and other factors he’s done ok. I’m glad us Packers fans have something to look forward to this weekend. I’m not taking it for granted.
This spoiled thin is silly. It’s more like realistic. I know that you don’t win in the NFL without a top QB, and they don’t come around very often. Rogers won’t be here for long, and then we will probably be like the other 22 teams in the NFL. Do not waste Rogers career with a failed draft and develop theory. Plug the holes in the defense with $1M-$3M 1-2 yr contracts. Give Rogers a chance.
Sven is spot on with his comments regarding PFF rankings. I appreciate John spending his money for PFF’s premium package and posting the numbers. However, if you go to PFF and read about their method (and they should be commended for the thorough explanation) you will see that they admit some assumptions that call into question the overall results. Also, if their stated review times for each are game are accurate, there seems to be no way every player on every could given any more than cursory analysis. It also seems doubtful that the reviewer could know the particular assignment of each player on each play.
In the end the data is dependent on the quality of the reviewer. Even if the reviewer is an expert, data based on subjective observation has serious reliability issues.
The sentence above should read: “Also, if their stated review times for each game are accurate, there seems to be no way every player on every team could be given any more than a cursory analysis”. Wish there was an edit function for the mobile device, or maybe I shouldn’t post at 4 am EST.
Edit function or not, thanks for being there for us, WKUPF.
Now get busy and post your comments at work like the rest of us!
Steve, you’re welcome, thank you for the compliment!