Last preseason, I took a look at how the Packers could fudge the numbers in order to keep six wide receivers on the roster. It involved breaking down the starting rosters since 2009 and seeing how many players at each position were kept on the initial 53-man roster. From there, I could make some conjectures about what might need to happen to make the numbers work.
This year, I’m doing the same exercise, but instead I’m looking at the numbers in a more general sense. By the end of business on Saturday, August 31, 2013, the Green Bay Packers and the other 31 NFL teams must have their roster size cut down to 53. In subtracting players, it’s important to see how the positions add up.
In other words, if you want to keep an extra player at one position, then what other position will be subtracted from to balance things out? And how might this year’s group of players affect the total numbers?
Below is a chart that represents the number of players at each position on the year’s starting roster. Rosters do change throughout the year due to injury, but by and large, the starting rosters are a clear indication of the personnel philosophy of Mike McCarthy. Also, as I stated last year, I only went back to 2009, because that’s when the 3-4 defense was first implemented, and that could have affected the defensive numbers.
Take a look. Each year is listed, followed by the minimum (MIN) number of players kept at that position in a single year, plus the average (AVG) number of players kept across all years. (Obviously, I have rounded off the average since we can’t keep half of a player.)
| POS | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | MIN | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| WR | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| TE | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3* | 4 |
| RB | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2* | 3 |
| FB | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1* | 2 |
| OL | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| DL | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| ILB | 6† | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| OLB | 3† | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| CB | 6† | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6‡ | 6 |
| S | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3‡ | 4 |
| SP | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| TOTAL: | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 47 (51) | 52 |
* – The TE, RB, FB positions comprised a total of 9 players throughout each year. TEs and FBs as blockers could be considered as mostly interchangeable, while in earlier years the FB position took on a bigger ball-carrying role along with the RBs.
† – In 2012, Erik Walden served his suspension for the first game of the season. When he was added back to the roster after that game, the Packers released CB Brandian Ross. Brad Jones could also have been considered both an OLB and ILB backup at the start of that season.
‡ – The safety position could be said to have a minimum breaking point of 4 players with the consideration that Jarrett Bush and Charles Woodson both played safety roles in the 2011 season. But across all four years, the DBs as a whole have had at least 10 players total.
HOW MIGHT THE 2013 NUMBERS ADD UP?
When you look at this list, it’s very close to the four-year average from the chart. Believe me, it’s mostly a coincidence. It’s how I feel the roster will shake out, though in the notes I’ve also mentioned some possible shifts in numbers based on personnel. Feel free to disagree or comment on my reasoning, because getting down to 53 is almost as much about the numbers as it is about the players. Consider this another tool you can use in making your own roster predictions this week.
As always, it’s the last three or four players that always create the biggest question marks. And it wouldn’t be normal if Ted Thompson didn’t make a surprise move or two.
- Quarterback: 2
This one is worth betting money on. McCarthy considers his practice squad quarterback the third-string player, and they can always elevate him in case of dire emergency. - Wide Receiver: 5
They could potentially end up taking six, though I don’t think they’re going to. The players fighting for sixth place aren’t as special as Boykin was last year; moreover, they don’t have to account for an aging veteran (see: Driver, Donald) who won’t be playing much. - Tight End: 4
Finley, Quarless, and Williams are almost guaranteed locks, though fans won’t like the latter of those three. Mulligan, Bostick, and Taylor could very well be battling for one or two more spots. - Running Back: 4
With Starks in the doghouse, it would be hard to convince me that they’ll keep any more than Harris, Lacy, Franklin, and Green. The only wild card is Harris’ injury, which could tempt the Packers to keep Starks as insurance. - Fullback: 1
It’s been made clear that the Packers will keep a fullback on the roster, and it’s another bet I’d be willing to take that it’s John Kuhn. - Offensive Line: 8
In addition to the five starters, there’s Marshall Newhouse and Greg Van Roten as additional locks. The next guy in line for a job is probably Taylor Lane, who is an inside player and has been playing with the first-team kick return unit. As for the tackles, Sherrod and Tretter will probably go to the PUP, so they might try to stash Datko on the practice squad. They could decide to keep another tackle, though, and bump the total number up to nine linemen. - Defensive Line: 7
This number might be a bit misleading, because Mike Neal is now moonlighting as an outside linebacker. But figure out which seventh player they’d cut to get to six, and it’s a definite challenge. - Inside Linebacker: 5
This number could drop to four depending on how the Packers feel about Manning, Lattimore, and Barrington. But based on special teams rosters, Manning and Lattimore probably don’t have too much to worry about. - Outside Linebacker: 4
Again, this number is misleading, since Mike Neal doesn’t count. However, I could see it dropping to three if Moses has slipped far enough. Matthews, Perry, and Mulumba appear to be obvious locks. - Cornerback: 6
The depth at cornerback is quite staggering. Williams, Shields, Hayward, House, and Hyde are clear locks, with the only question being Bush. Still, I have a feeling Bush isn’t going anywhere this year based on contract money and special teams value. - Safety: 4
Some might argue that they could limit this to three players, but the sudden rise of Chris Banjo suggests otherwise. Besides that, it’s a risk to only have one backup player for two positions. - Specialists: 3
Punter, kicker, and long snapper… has been and always shall be.
Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporski
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The defensive line is going to be the tricky one. Jones, Raji, Daniels, Pickett, Jolly, Pickett, and Boyd which makes 7. That’s assuming you count Neal as a outside LB and cut Moses who seems to have really regressed this year. Man, tough choices and decisions. I doubt the can stash Boyd on PS. I’d think someone would pick him up. This is a question, so please refrain from tearing my head off. Is there a chance the Packers cut Pickett to keep Jolly and Boyd?
Interesting thoughts…I would take Wilson over the 34-year old Pickett…No pass rush and I never hear his name called…combine that with his high salary…Boyd, Jolly, and Daniels have all played well…
good god, man.. Pickett is the best defensive lineman on the team.
it’s a thankless job Ryan does, and it doesn’t show up on the stat sheets, but what he does is difficult and he does it better than anyone else on the roster can.
Pickett is getting up there in age, but he’s a flat-out beast who gets much respect from OL across the league.
That statement, with all due respect is not fact, but, opinion. Oppy, if Pickett is so great, why doesn’t he make many tackles and seems to go a long time without making any plays ala Johnny Jolly, who makes tackles, tips passes, forces fumbles, makes interceptions, makes sacks…and why is Pickett never even mentioned for the Pro Bowl?…Why, and these are objective facts?…Look, I know everyone here loves the Packers, but, do you want play makers or pedestrian players who create nothing and are well past their prime?
Ryan Pickett certainly is not young, and is definitely in the twilight of his career.
That said, when it comes to playing NT/two gapping, he’s neither pedestrian or well past his prime..in my opinion.
You mention and count Pickett twice in your counting.
Jones, Raji, Pickett, Jolly, Daniels, Neal, Boyd and Wilson are the ones in question. Neals a hybrid but he still counts as a DL in my book. My guess is they go w/ 7. I don’t see releasing Pickett… He’s still the best run stuffer on the bunch, the leader of the unit and productive. I haven’t seen Boyd make any splash plays so he could easily make the PS. Not a certainty tho.
Again I keep coming down to the Jolly/Wilson debate. IMO that goes to Jolly, but I heard Wilson had a strong game vs Seattle. Much more a fan of Jolly and the intangibles he brings that Wilson doesn’t. If they try to get Boyd on PS then both Jolly and Wilson make it.
Agree but if TT feels he can’t get Boyd to PS then all of them are kept. Boyd is development to replace one of Raji/Pickett as their contracts expire.
TT will count Neal as an OLB and drop Moses as he has been terrrible this pre-season.
I have a feeling somebody (perhaps Boyd) stubbs his toe and gets placed on the IR or pup list. This is a hidding place sometimes if they feel the player will not clear waivers.
Boyd, based on NFL rules cannot be placed on the PUP-list…he could be cut, clear waivers, and be put on the PS if no team claims him and if so, he must go on their 53-man roster….We need to retain Boyd, Jolly, Wilson, Neal, Raji, D. Jones, and Daniels…Place a number of our injured players who have not practiced on the PUP (J.C. Tretter and Jerrel Worthy) and Bulaga on IR. I understand that I am the ‘voice in the wilderness’ and that the probability of this coming down is relatively low, but, we need to let Pickett retire…
Yes I see that, sorry. One thing though, Wilson actually ranked ahead of Pickett in Tackles per snap last season and in 2011 he was the 6th ranked DE in run stop %. Kinda surprised me. Just thought I’d point that out to you since you stated Pickett was the best run stuffer last year. Maybe it’s Pickett stuffing it and Wilson just making the tackles, hey Stroh?
That’s actually exactly what it is.
Pickett is a two gapper, and a damn fine one. He’s often taking up multiple blockers in the middle of the line, taking on both a G and a C at the same time in many cases, so others can make the play.
Wilson plays the edge almost exclusively and offers him a higher chance of seeing a one on one match up. When he does see doubles it’s often a tackle and a TE.
IMO, Pickett is the best DL on the roster. It’s not flashy, it’s just great, hard nosed DL play.
I’ve also been an ardent and outspoken proponent of CJ Wilson’s play as well. He is a very solid 3-4 end, and his ability to anchor and play the run is invaluable. He’s a much better lineman than most Packers fans will acknowledge, mostly because a good number of Packers fans are still caught up in a 4-3 mindset and only value DL that rush the passer.
Oppy, other than your opinion, what makes you unequivocally state that you believe Pickett is our best DL? What stats?…Why has he never been All-Pro with the Packers or why does he not make the Pro Bowl every year if he is so great?…I respect your opinion, but, I just don’t see him as any more than an average-at best NT. If he was so fantastic, he would at least, make the Pro Bowl every year…Yet, that simply is not the case.
Tackles are what really matters on DL in a 34 D. The DL are mostly used to take on multiple blockers. So Pickett does that better than Wilson, and probably allows Wilson to make a few more tackles. No way Wilson can play NT in a 34, he’s almost overmatched at DE. He certainly isn’t going to take Picketts role as a NT!
Jolly in ’09 only had a total of 39 combined solo and assist tackles. Shows how little tackles mean for 34 DL. Jolly actually has the size and power to play NT better than Wilson, just another reason to keep Jolly over Wilson. Along w/ intangibles and passes defensed, etc.
Ooops… Tackles are NOT what matters on DL.
Stroh, how many tackles did Pickett have in ’09?…I’ll bet much less than Jolly…Let’s take a look at Pickett’s stats over the past 4-5 years…and compare them apples-for-apples with other NT’s…
Everyone follows the party line by stating Pickett is so great. Why is he never mentioned for the Pro Bowl since the Packers signed him?…Could it be simply because he is pedestrian and no more?…How many sacks has he had in the past four years?…How many tackles?…How many forced fumbles?…Any picks?…How many tipped passes?…His name seldom shows up on the stat sheet, yet he is so great?…
A large percentage of the voting for the pro bowl goes to the public..
In short, the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Fans like splashy stats.
As I stated previously, guys with jobs like Pickett often don’t get the stats, they just make it easier for everyone else on the defense to get the stats.
The appreciation I have for Ryan Pickett comes from watching him play, and seeing the effect it has on how a play unfolds. It often can not be found on a stat sheet.
Perhaps I have a certain level of respect for guys like Ryan Pickett that others may not, simply because in my own life both professional and personal, I tend to be a team player who often takes on the brunt of the task at hand, without complaint, so my co-workers and friends can excel.
That’s FOOTBALL. It’s a team sport. It takes 11 guys doing their jobs to execute a given play. On any given play, the majority of those 11 guys aren’t “THE GUY”, but most of the 11 have a direct impact on how “THE GUY” fared.
I think Pickett is cut, youth wins out. Better to cut a year early then a year late.
Picketts got a couple years left in him. I think he gets a 2 yr contract after this year and plays one of those years. No one on the team can play NT as well as Pickett against the run.
You’re psychic…my sentiments exactly.
If Pickett plays so well against the run, why does he get so few tackles?…He is IMHO, not a play maker, puts no pressure on the QB, doesn’t tip passes, makes very, very few tackles, doesn’t force fumbles, and is never mentioned for All-Pro nor even the Pro Bowl?…Yet according to many of you, he is so great?…I don’t see it…He appears to me, as nothing more than an average-at best NT in a 3-4…Am a fifty+ year Packers fan, even throughout all the 70’s and 80’s…I believe we would be better off in the long-term by releasing Pickett and keeping Jolly and Boyd…Jolly is a proven play maker…Boyd looks like he at least has fresh legs and could develop into another Cullen Jenkins…Pickett IMO has been a serviceable NT and his time has passed.
I foresee Jones, Raji, Pickett, Jolly, Wilson and Miller. Try to stash Boyd on the PS, I think he will get there. Neal counts as a OLB or not at all. Jolly has really shown that he plays well and elevates the guys around him as well. Wilson has really looked good so far in camp, as has Miller. Boyd needs time to develop.
Maybe stash Palmer and Barrington on the PS to start the season. I doubt another team will want to make space on their 53 for either of them yet, but both look like good future prospects. Maybe Franklin good be a PS player as well, but he would probably get snatched up
I don’t see it being possible that Mike Daniels doesn’t make this team.
Sven, I like that you are trying to think outside the box, instead of agreeing with everyone on all points…We’ll see what happens in short order, I do believe that Daniels has played well, though compared to Miller, he is smaller physically, but, I believe makes up for the lack-of-size with a higher ‘motor’ and better quickness…The final selections for LB will most likely have at least one surprise…appreciate your thoughts and am looking forward to Thursday night’s game.
Dave, we are in the minority in this discussion, but, you have summarized my thoughts precisely: Boyd over Pickett.
Two Pickets? If so then they can cut one of them. But I think you meant Wilson.
not sure I agree with Quarless making the roster. he’s shown nothing. I see Bostick and Mulligan making it before God’s Gift – but don’t know the extent of Mulligan’s arm injury.
Love you handle. Classic Ferris Beuhler reference!
As far as Quarless is concerned I think he makes it on potential. He’s coming off a MAJOR knee injury. They’ll give him this year to see what happens and if he can fulfill that ability IMO.
91 also looks like a keeper.
51 (Nate Palmer) has looked great at OLB.
Finally watched the game – pass rush was very good all game long. Haven’t seen that in a long, long time. Plays made by linemen, linebackers and blitzing D backs.
This may mean they keep more defensive players than usual.
The TE position will be interesting for us this year…Apparently, Quarless’ knee injury was worse than anticipated…I would prefer keeping Finley (a given), Bostick, Mulligan, Stoneburner, and Taylor, in that order…
Both Bostick and Stoneburner look like they have better hands than Finley and could be playmakers. Mulligan: blocking and Taylor: special teams…
My guess is they only go w/ 4 TE’s this year. I think Finley, Mulligan, Quarless Bostick. Williams drops way to many and doesn’t show up in games like he does in practice. Stoneburner can go on PS. Taylor is the difficult choice since he’s on all the #1 ST units. It would be hard to replace him. Depends on the severity of Quarless injury too.
I saw some rumors I think in JournalSentinal about Bostick being inquired about from other teams.
Also didn’t the Packers have 4 TE’s the last two seasons?
91 has been getting blown off the line of scrimmage when I’ve watched him.
Once again I hope Kuhn doesn’t make the team.
I’m wondering what players TT would be willing to trade for draft picks? And it will be interesting to see which players cut are signed by other teams.
“(Obviously, I have rounded off the average since we can’t keep half of a player.)”
Throughout his career the way DJ Williams has played in the regular season vs how he played in the preseason TT has kept just half a player…(rim shot).
Bubba One, I like the way you think…Kuhn is a fan favorite, but, business is business…If we are going to keep a blocking FB I would take Amosa and cut Kuhn…I hope we can find a taker to trade D.J. Williams, but, he looks like a cut…What has Quarless done?…I am tired of the waiting on him, he has shown nothing in training camp, cut him or see if we can get a late round pick or even a conditional pick…Let’s go with fresh blood, I much prefer Bostick and Stoneburner over Williams and Quarless…their ‘potential time’ has passed…
“Keeping Starks for insurance.”
Whoa.
Keeping Starks for insurance he will go on the injured reserve…
They need to keep 7 DL and also keep neal and count him as a OLB. This gives a great DL rotation and keeps these big men fresh to cause havoc all game long. These guys were gassed in the 4th quarter against quality OLs last year
GBPDan, that is a well thought-out comment. I usually don’t like to agree with someone totally, but, you are spot on…Any thoughts on our LB’s and secondary?…
Here is my wish list for TE.
1. Finely
2. Quarless
3. Mulligan
4. Taylor (but I think Williams might get this spot).
Lets be honest, Bostick has been playing good but not great. Think about a double TE set will our two best blocking TE’s (Mulligan and Quarless). Plus, Quarless offers something in the passing game.
I would love to see Taylor get the last spot, but I have a feeling TT doesn’t let Williams go.
Chad, I’m not sure what the Packers kept in previous years is that much help in projecting who they will keep this year.
Each year is unique in its own way. If you have planty of talent on the D line this year and not much at safety (which is the case this year), then that is what will cause the coach to adjust the numbers-per-unit.
there are certain constants,like TEs and LBs having good body types for special teams, or some positions having more injury concerns this year than others. Despite that, I would suggest that looking at the quality of the depth on each unit might tell you as much and maybe more about numbers, than looking at past years.
Another example: I expect us not to go heavy on WR (ie we keep five and not six) just because there is not a compelling reason to keep six.
Personally, I’d cut Kuhn this year as we have people that can do all the things he can. Then we can keep four RBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green) instead of the more usual three. However, there is no indication Kuhn will be gone, so I do not expect that to happen.
I get your main point, and you are absolutely correct… Past years won’t dictate what happens this year. But, as you even mentioned, there are certain trends to can notice in the numbers.
For instance, the Packers have always kept 2 QB, 6 DL, and 3 SP the past four years. That said, 2012 does show that trends can easily be broken. It was the first year that the Packers kept more than 5 WR and less than 8 OL. With that in mind, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see 7 DL this year, breaking the trend.
What I think is MOST important though, is the minimum number of players kept at a given position. It gives us an idea of how far down McCarthy is willing to go at a given position. Obviously, he needs to have both enough starters and enough backups to adequately survive the season. And this gives us an idea of how those numbers tend to break down.
Finally, this is mostly an exercise to generate a starting point for roster predictions. We base the numbers on the roster depth, but then we can go back and re-evaluate, shifting numbers as we go, always keeping in mind our minimum “limit” at positions.
Just like all stats, it’s not the whole story, but it can definitely be a useful tool.
The minimum at a position is a very good point I hadn’t considered much. 7 x OL last year is surely a minimum for that position. 2 x QBs is an obvious minimum unless you have a converted QB playing another position and you have confidence he can fill in (as a QB).
Of course it is never, ever simple. For example should the Packers count Neal as a LB so they could have another seven DL kept besides him….unheard of, but possible this year. TEs could substitute for a FB in a pinch. This stuff is never easy, but it is fun to speculate.
50-50 whether Kuhn is kept (or cut). Agree that we could either cut him and keep Amosa (better blocker and lower salary), keep him, or cut him and keep an extra TE.
My Ideal 53 (based on depth chart):
2 QB: Rodgers, Young
4 RB: Lacy, Harris, Franklin, Green
1 FB: Kuhn
5 WR: Cobb, Nelson, Jones, Boykin, White
4 TE: Finely, Quarless, Mulligan, Taylor
8 OL: Bak, Sitton, EDS, Lang, Barclay,
Newhouse, VR, Taylor
7 DL: Jones, Pickett, Raji, Daniels,
Neal, Jolly, Boyd
5 ILB: Hawk, Jones, RF, Manning, Barrington,
4 OLB: Mathews, Perry, Mulumba, Palmer
6 CB : Williams, Shields, Hayward, Hyde, House, Bush
4 S : Burnett, McMillian, Jennings, Banjo
Special Teams: Crosby, Masthay, Goode
PUP List: Tretter, Sherrod, Worthy
I think this fits. Nice job.
Except I have a hunch that Crosby might be in trouble even though Pinocchio has been cut.
Very well done. Much the way I would predict it. Possibly let Starks go depending on Harris being healthy or soon after the season starts. That would allow them to keep a player at another position, most likely a 6th WR. At TE I think they let Williams go and Bostick could stick too instead of a 6th WR.
Good job…Bostick has been getting reps on the primary ST units so I think they keep him…maybe at the cost of Kuhn. I’m concerned Harris’ knee injury is problematic. Maybe he goes on IR as the return designee. If so, I’d keep Starks and hope in season injuries on other teams allows TT to get a draft choice for him.
Well done Pack from PA…Have several disagreements, but, would bet you get within one of 47 correct…Thanks for your thoughts!
It’s silk purse time folks.
Let’s take a preponderence of 6th, 7th rounders and UDFA’s and build a team.
For that alone MM should get Coach of the Year every year.
I think we ought to remember that Aug 31 isn’t necessarily the final roster. They can go into Week 1 with a somewhat unbalanced roster and use the first week to trade or add an FA.
So they could easily keep (for example) 7 OL and 9 DB in week 1 to carry 8 DL instead of 6.
The point being that you don’t want to keep a guy who isn’t in your best 53 just to make up some number at a given position — plus you can’t realize trade value if other teams think you are going to cut a guy, you need to at least threaten to keep them so as to force the trade.
Pack from PA…I agree with most of your picks, but, I wouldn’t want to see Wilson leave from the DL. I watched him in these preseason games and he looks better this year than last year. This D needs some run stuffers
Run stuffers? Pickett, Raji and Jolly are all better run stuffers than WIlson.
I disagree about Raji and Jolly. Wilson is an excellent run defender.
very interesting thread… much of the final decision will be determined by special teams
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