How Have the Mike McCarthy Packers Fared After the Bye Week?
With no Green Bay Packers football this weekend, I turned my thinking to the rest of this regular season.Â As was mentioned in Marques Eversollâ€™s column, the Packersâ€™ remaining schedule after the bye weekÂ appears to be another tough road ahead.
Featured are most of their divisional matchups with a rematch of last yearâ€™s playoff game against the New York Giants mixed in.Â They also have a sneaky week 15 home game vs. the Tennessee Titans to round off the AFC portion of this yearâ€™s slate.
I started pondering how head coach Mike McCarthyâ€™s Packer teams have historically fared after the bye.Â Here is a quick glance, including this seasonâ€™s first half:
|Â Season||Â Before Bye||Â After Bye||Â Result|
|2006||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1-4||Â Â Â Â Â Â 7-4||No playoffs|
|2007||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5-1||Â Â Â Â Â Â 8-2||NFC Championship loss|
|2008||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4-3||Â Â Â Â Â Â 2-7||No playoffs|
|2009||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2-2||Â Â Â Â Â Â 9-3||Wild card round loss|
|2010||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4-3||Â Â Â Â Â Â 6-3||Super Bowl win|
|2011||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7-0||Â Â Â Â Â Â 8-1||Divisional round loss|
|2012||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6-3||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ?||Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ?|
|Totals*||Â Â Â 31-13||Â Â 38-20||4 playoff appearances|
*Totals do not include 2012 season
During McCarthyâ€™s tenure, the teamâ€™s winning percentage before the bye is .705 and .655 after (through 2011).Â At first, it would appear that these teams have, on average, had more success during their seasonâ€™s first half.Â However, youâ€™ll also see that the Packers have played 38 of their regular season games before the bye and by this yearâ€™s end, will have played 65 after.Â Thatâ€™s 27 more games played on the â€œback endâ€ of their schedules.
Green Bay has an even win margin before and after the bye at a +18.Â If you remove the 2008 season, the Packers have had a winning record after their bye week in the rest of McCarthyâ€™s seasons as head man.
In his six full seasons, the team has appeared in the postseason four times.Â The two seasons the team did not make a playoff appearance, they struggled more than usual during one of these two stretches.Â In 2006, McCarthyâ€™s first, the team started out 1-4 and their hot finish wasnâ€™t enough and they missed out.Â In 2008, the team appeared poised to make a run after starting out 4-3, but lost many of their last nine games by narrow margins and squandered several fourth quarter leads.
Based on the teamâ€™s history over the past seven seasons, the Packers have set themselves up for a solid chance at getting into the postseason tournament.Â There is a lot of football to be played and it stands to reason that they should keep themselves in the conversation for a division crown and contenders in the NFC.
The Pack will need a little help, however, if they want to bring home another division crown.Â Their long-time rival, the Chicago Bears have lost just one game so far and are the division leaders.Â The Packers will only face them once more during this regular season.
I checked the Bearsâ€™ mark over the same time period and they tend to fare better before their bye (.615) than afterwards (.544).Â This suggests there is a decent chance, if all goes according to the averages, that the Packers can leapfrog Chicago and snag the NFC North.
Itâ€™s noteworthy that Green Bay enters their bye week with the same mark (6-3) that they had in their Super Bowl championship season of 2010.Â There have already been many comparisons made between the two teams.Â Whether the 2012 team can put together a final stretch run similar or better than that of two seasons go remains to be seen.â€”â€”â€”â€”â€”â€”
Jason Perone is an independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on "AllGreenBayPackers.comFollow Jason at: Jason Perone
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