11

November

How Have the Mike McCarthy Packers Fared After the Bye Week?

Packers Coach Mike McCarthy

Mike McCarthy’s Packers have historically fared well after the bye week

With no Green Bay Packers football this weekend, I turned my thinking to the rest of this regular season.  As was mentioned in Marques Eversoll’s column, the Packers’ remaining schedule after the bye week appears to be another tough road ahead.

Featured are most of their divisional matchups with a rematch of last year’s playoff game against the New York Giants mixed in.  They also have a sneaky week 15 home game vs. the Tennessee Titans to round off the AFC portion of this year’s slate.

I started pondering how head coach Mike McCarthy’s Packer teams have historically fared after the bye.  Here is a quick glance, including this season’s first half:

 Season  Before Bye  After Bye  Result
2006         1-4        7-4 No playoffs
2007         5-1        8-2 NFC Championship loss
2008           4-3        2-7 No playoffs
2009         2-2        9-3 Wild card round loss
2010         4-3        6-3 Super Bowl win
2011         7-0        8-1 Divisional round loss
2012         6-3         ?                 ?
Totals*     31-13    38-20 4 playoff appearances

*Totals do not include 2012 season

During McCarthy’s tenure, the team’s winning percentage before the bye is .705 and .655 after (through 2011).  At first, it would appear that these teams have, on average, had more success during their season’s first half.  However, you’ll also see that the Packers have played 38 of their regular season games before the bye and by this year’s end, will have played 65 after.  That’s 27 more games played on the “back end” of their schedules.

Green Bay has an even win margin before and after the bye at a +18.  If you remove the 2008 season, the Packers have had a winning record after their bye week in the rest of McCarthy’s seasons as head man.

In his six full seasons, the team has appeared in the postseason four times.  The two seasons the team did not make a playoff appearance, they struggled more than usual during one of these two stretches.  In 2006, McCarthy’s first, the team started out 1-4 and their hot finish wasn’t enough and they missed out.  In 2008, the team appeared poised to make a run after starting out 4-3, but lost many of their last nine games by narrow margins and squandered several fourth quarter leads.

Based on the team’s history over the past seven seasons, the Packers have set themselves up for a solid chance at getting into the postseason tournament.  There is a lot of football to be played and it stands to reason that they should keep themselves in the conversation for a division crown and contenders in the NFC.

The Pack will need a little help, however, if they want to bring home another division crown.  Their long-time rival, the Chicago Bears have lost just one game so far and are the division leaders.  The Packers will only face them once more during this regular season.

I checked the Bears’ mark over the same time period and they tend to fare better before their bye (.615) than afterwards (.544).  This suggests there is a decent chance, if all goes according to the averages, that the Packers can leapfrog Chicago and snag the NFC North.

It’s noteworthy that Green Bay enters their bye week with the same mark (6-3) that they had in their Super Bowl championship season of 2010.  There have already been many comparisons made between the two teams.  Whether the 2012 team can put together a final stretch run similar or better than that of two seasons go remains to be seen.

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Jason Perone is an independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on "AllGreenBayPackers.com

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5 Responses to “How Have the Mike McCarthy Packers Fared After the Bye Week?”

  1. Chad Lundberg says:

    It’s not unreasonable to think that they will win the rest of their games.

    That probably won’t happen, lol, but if Rodgers gets protection and if the defense continues to improve, it’s not that far fetched.

    Also, I don’t care what seed they land on just as long as they smack the Giants. Hard.

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  2. Bearmeat Bearmeat says:

    They’ll go 5-2. And win the division.

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  3. nick perry says:

    Depending upon who comes back and when, I think the Packers could win all their remaining games. It depends when they get back some of their injured starters and which ones they are. I would think Jennings starts to at least practice soon. Woodson in a few weeks? I can’t remember exactly what game Wood went down. I believe we haven’t seen the best of the 2012 Packers yet. I think they can win the North. The Bears lost last night and lets hope they lose next week. No matter I’d like to see the Packers tied or just a game down heading to Chicago at the very least. I think they’ll beat the Bears… Again! The Bears have beat one team with winning record and we’ll begin to see what we already know, The Bears are not a great team. Even though the Packers last 3 wins have come against weaker teams they still did it down as many as 11 starters. Not many teams could do that. I’ve been critical of T.T. at times but the man can build a team! Thanks Ted! Packers getting ready to finish season at 12-4, win the North and bring the Lombardi Trophy home!

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